Why Analysts Believe Altcoins Are in the Final Stage of the Bear Market
Altcoin investors may close 2025 without seeing profits in their portfolios. However, many analysts remain optimistic despite the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2) dropping 30% from this years peak.
What makes analysts believe the altcoin bear market may be entering its final phase? The following points highlight the key reasons.
Why Altcoins Are in a Phase of Opportunity
First, CryptoQuant data shows that only about 3% of altcoins on Binance trade above the 200-day moving average. This level marks a historical low.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost attributes a lack of liquidity and defensive investor sentiment as the primary causes. Investors currently prioritize capital preservation over exposure to risky assets.
Percentage of Binance Altcoins Above or Below the 200-Day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant
The fact that most altcoins trade well below their long-term averages reflects widespread undervaluation driven by negative sentiment. Recent BeInCrypto analysis reveals that altcoins such as XRP, TON, and ADA possess strong fundamentals, yet their prices have failed to recover.
Despite the bleak outlook, historical comparisons suggest that such weak periods often create attractive opportunities for patient investors.
Even though it may seem counterintuitive, these types of periods often offer the best opportunities. This phase may last for some time, especially if the market enters a prolonged bear phase, Darkfost said.
Second, fear and a lack of interest from retail investors often unlock the best price zones. Large investors tend to seize these moments to accumulate.
Well-known X analyst CrediBULL Crypto highlighted this factor as a key signal for identifying market bottoms. A recent post argued that attention, not capital, moves first.
"Capital isn't scarce- attention is."And the #1 driver of attention is when "number go up" quickly.Market bottoms (like the one I believe we are forming now) are marked by un-interest and the absence of "retail". The big boys quietly load up at the bottom when retail is https://t.co/cSkopoUXtw
CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) December 21, 2025
When retail investors lose interest, large players step in to buy. As early green candles appear, retail attention gradually returns. Retail participation then accelerates the next phase of the move.
Technical Signals Point to a Potential Bottom
Third, multiple technical indicators suggest that the altcoin bear market is nearing its end. Renowned market analyst Michal van de Poppe stated that current altcoin market capitalization levels act as strong support. He described the zone as an area to hold.
Altcoins Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH. Source: Michal van de Poppe
Ultimately, it looks like were on a crucial level of support. It seems worthwhile to stay positioned at this level. Solid bounces suggest that green candles may appear from here, Michal van de Poppe predicted.
Additional signals reinforce this outlook:
The altcoin market cap ratio, excluding the top 10, versus Bitcoin sits at its strongest support since 2017.
Altcoin dominance currently stands at levels comparable to those during the COVID crisis period, which previously preceded a strong recovery.
These factors suggest that altcoins may be in the final stage of decline. Recent BeInCrypto analysis indicates that a DCA strategy could prove effective if started from December.
However, some analysts continue to warn of risks. They argue that an altcoin season may not arrive even in 2026. Venture capital inflows remain weak, and market sentiment may take a considerable amount of time to recover.
Read the article at BeInCrypto
Pantera founder says Solana is firm’s biggest crypto bet with $1.1 billion position
Speaking to Andrew Sorkin on CNBC's "Squawk Box" program on Monday, Pantera Capital founder and Managing Partner Dan Morehead revealed that Solana is the venture capital firm's largest crypto position.
Responding to a question comparing the outperformance of different blockchains and asking if it's a winner-take-all market, "No, it isn't," Morehead said. "It's not like there's not a winner-take-all on the internet, right? We have lots of different internet companies. There will be lots of blockchains that are important, but our biggest position is Solana. We have $1.1 billion of Solana on our books." That represents around 23% of the firm's total $4.7 billion in assets under management, according to its website.
While there are lots of internet companies, there are not a lot of protocols, Sorkin highlighted, pushing the Pantera founder on how many crypto protocols he thought would survive long term. "I think there's a single-digit number of Layer 1s, things like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, not thousands, but definitely not one," Morehead said.
In May 2024, Pantera made what it described at the time as its "largest-ever investment" in TON, the native cryptocurrency of the TON blockchain, closely linked to the messaging app giant Telegram. However, the amount was not disclosed, and since the mini-game hype cycle surrounding Telegram and TON blockchain came to an end around the same time, TON is down around 60%, according to The Block's price page.
Pressed on whether any better crypto technologies were emerging, "Well, right now it's Solana," Morehead said. "We've had huge positions in Ethereum in the past; we used to be 100% Bitcoin, something could come out tomorrow. [But] Solana can do 9 billion transactions a day, which is more than all capital markets combined. So it's not obvious you need that next thing past Solana."
Regarding long-term price action, Morehead said that Bitcoin remains a single-digit percentage of global wealth, anticipating it could reach $750,000 in the next four or five years. However, with Solana just 5% of Bitcoin's market cap, he believes it will outperform over time.
Earlier on Monday, Pantera announced that it was leading a private investment in public equity offering alongside Summer Capital for Helius Medical Technologies to raise over $500 million to launch a Solana treasury company. The Nasdaq-listed micro-cap firm jumped 142% by Monday's close following the news.
"For 12 years, we've been trying to provide access, but it's normally to very institutional investors," Morehead told Sorkin. "This is the first product we've ever offered that you can just go buy at your brokerage account. So it allows access to cryptocurrencies to kind of normal investors. And so far, Solana doesn't even have an ETF, so it's very, very difficult for a normal investor to get access to Solana."
Bitcoin and Ethereum 'monster move'
Later in the day, Tom Lee, Managing Partner at Fundstrat and Chair of Ethereum treasury firm BitMine, told CNBC's Dominic Chu on "Closing Bell" that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to be the biggest crypto beneficiaries, alongside the Nasdaq 100 and small caps.
Describing the current bull market as mid-cycle, Lee said the next leg of the rally is contingent on the Fed cutting, helping the ISM manufacturing index to get back above 50 for the first time in 31 months, and bringing down mortgage rates, especially in an environment where the labor market has slowed.
"I'm looking at September 98 and September 2024 as the playbook, because those are both years where the Fed was on an extended pause, and they cut in September," Lee said. "The number one trade is NASDAQ 100. So I think that's why the MAG-7 and the AI trade get a lot of liftoff."
"The second is monetary liquidity sensitivity, global central banks' easing. That's Bitcoin and Ethereum. And seasonally strong, I think they could make a monster move in the next three months, like, huge," he added. "And the third, of course, is interest rate sensitives. That's really small caps and financials, but really the first two might be the standout trades."
Bitcoin mainly reacts to monetary policy and liquidity, while Ethereum is both liquidity-sensitive and tied to broader innovation — from AI and Wall Street adoption to stablecoins, Lee said. He likened Ethereum to the post-1971 dollar era, calling it a "growth protocol," which is why BitMine is heavily accumulating it.
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