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BlockBeats News, June 30, Wintermute released its latest market report stating that Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000, Ethereum is also weakening, and the crypto market has entered the late stage of a bear market, but the true cycle bottom may not have appeared yet. The report points out that the recent cooling off of AI trading has become the main theme in global markets, with the Nasdaq falling for five consecutive trading days and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 7% in a single day. Funds are starting to rotate from large-cap tech stocks to small-cap stocks and US treasuries, while crypto assets are under pressure in tandem with tech stocks. Meanwhile, US May PCE inflation rose to 4.1%, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period, and the strengthening US dollar has further suppressed risk asset performance. Wintermute believes that current market sentiment has entered the extreme fear zone, with the Fear & Greed Index remaining between 18 and 24, and about half of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in a floating loss, both near levels characteristic of historic bear market bottoms. However, the report notes that what is truly lacking at this stage is a reinflow of capital. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows of about $1.8 billion recently, and stablecoin and other liquidity indicators have yet to show improvement. Regarding Strategy’s latest capital framework, Wintermute states that the company increased STRC dividends, started stock buybacks, and for the first time formally authorized the sale of up to approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin—steps that help reduce capital structure risk and thus received a positive market response. However, the report suggests that Bitcoin reserve companies starting to retain the right to sell BTC to pay dividends also means the market’s long-standing “permanent bid” is gradually shifting to a “conditional bid.” Wintermute expects that, due to historical seasonal factors, it is highly unlikely that the crypto market will establish a bottom during the summer, and is more likely to reach a true bottom around September to October. The subsequent trend will continue to depend on the macro environment, the cooling down of the AI sector, and the return of capital flows into the crypto market.

Odaily reports that Federal Reserve's Harker stated that he will not prejudge whether a rate hike is needed in July, and currently sees no tensions in the dual mandate. (Golden Ten Data)

BlockBeats news, on June 30, investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the US "CLARITY Act" still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate, and legislative developments in the coming weeks may intensify volatility in the crypto market. Jefferies pointed out that although the bill previously passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, there are only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess. The Senate still needs to complete bill consolidation, procedural votes, coordination with the House version, and submit it for presidential signature, so time is extremely tight. According to Polymarket data, the probability of this bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%. Jefferies believes that if the bill goes through successfully, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management firms, and exchanges to accelerate the deployment of tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, as well as facilitating more crypto ETFs and crypto infrastructure company IPOs. If the legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty and cause traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain business expansion. The report expects that the bill's progress will continue to affect the market performance of crypto concept stocks and certain crypto assets, including Circle (CRCL), an exchange (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH). Jefferies also pointed out that, in the long run, compared with regulatory changes, the bigger challenge for stablecoin issuer Circle still comes from competition with banks, fintech, and payment companies.