News

⑴ India’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier "Disha" has successfully passed through the strategic Strait of Hormuz and safely arrived at Dahej Port in Gujarat. The vessel arrived at Dahej Port in the Bharuch district and berthed at the Petronet LNG terminal on Thursday morning. This voyage took place following an agreement between the United States and Iran to end hostilities and reopen the crucial global oil and gas trade route.⑵ Dahej Port, home to one of India’s largest LNG import terminals operated by Petronet LNG, is a key hub for natural gas supply in the country. The safe arrival of this vessel is expected to support the continuous flow of LNG imports to meet domestic energy demand and marks the progressive normalization of India’s energy import routes after the conflict.

⑴ Most global brokers expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026, reversing earlier expectations of two rate cuts at the start of the year. The June meeting, chaired by the new chair Walsh, kept the policy rate unchanged, but 9 out of the 19 policymakers believe a rate hike is necessary within the year. After the decision, traders’ expectations for a rate hike in December rose from 61% to 87%. ⑵ There is a clear divergence among major institutions: Citigroup and Wells Fargo expect two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, bringing the rate down to 3.00%-3.25%, with actions in October and December, respectively. In contrast, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Research, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Bank of America Global Research, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Standard Chartered, and Societe Generale all expect no policy change this year, with the benchmark rate remaining at 3.50%-3.75%. ⑶ Macquarie expects one rate hike in the fourth quarter to 3.75%-4.00%, while BNP Paribas forecasts a 25 basis point rate hike in December to 3.75%-4.00%. The path for the Federal Reserve remains highly uncertain, with subsequent inflation data and labor market performance being key variables determining the direction of policy.

⑴ As Federal Reserve policymakers adopt a more hawkish stance, dampening market sentiment, copper prices have led the decline among base metals. According to analysts at ANZ Research, higher interest rates increase the costs for copper importers, putting additional pressure on prices. During early European trading, London copper futures fell 1.15% to $13,655 per ton.⑵ However, analysts noted that robust demand has limited the extent of the price drop. The construction of data center infrastructure—which is crucial to the development of artificial intelligence—is boosting copper consumption. With factors on both the supply and demand side intertwined, copper prices in the short term remain suppressed by macro policy expectations, though the fundamentals may provide some support, making the downward space relatively limited.