Ethena USDeの‌価格

✍️ By ND Crypto Guru ━━ The Hook ━━ ENA is trading around _$0.15764 today, falling 4.92% in 24 hours_ and sitting close to its daily low. The sharp decline highlights growing concerns about the protocol's yield model, regulatory scrutiny of synthetic dollars, and exposure to crypto market volatility. Although USDe itself held near $1.00, it is too early to interpret this as evidence of a confirmed bottom for ENA. The more important question is whether the recent weakness reflects a temporary adjustment in market sentiment or a deeper reassessment of Ethena's growth model. ⭕ The Real Picture The timing of the decline is significant. It came during a period when investors began reassessing the regulatory environment for stablecoins, lending, and large-scale crypto infrastructure. Across the market, traders have become more sensitive to any change in oversight, custody rules, and counterparty disclosure. For ENA, this creates a potential challenge because its expanding USDe business depends heavily on maintaining trust in its backing, hedging, and risk controls. Any doubt about transparency could delay adoption while funding costs and competitive pressure continue to build. The regulatory challenge becomes more serious when viewed alongside ENA's changing revenue structure. Its USDe synthetic dollar business has become the core of the protocol. USDe was listed around $1.000, with a market capitalization of about $4.59 billion and circulating supply of about 4.60 billion USDe. Ethena also reported more than $800 million in total rewards distributed, and USDe expanded to XLayer and OKX Wallet, crossed $100 million on Monad, and became the second-largest dollar asset on Base behind USDC. This growth creates substantial opportunities, but it also exposes the protocol to funding-rate changes, exchange counterparty risk, and changing political priorities. If USDe growth slows, the gap between incentives paid and sustainable protocol revenue could widen. ⭕ Inside The Matter Capital and incentive spending is another major concern. ENA is down 16.46% in 7 days and 23.75% in 30 days, despite being up 82.07% in 90 days and 22.39% in 180 days, according to the chart. That pattern shows a market that rewarded growth quickly and is now repricing it just as fast. Ethena has relied on high rewards and incentives to drive USDe adoption. A governance-approved fee switch could direct up to 95% of eligible net revenue to buybacks once USDe supply reaches an initial $7.5 billion threshold. Although that mechanism could support ENA if revenue grows, it still creates significant dependence on USDe reaching scale. In an environment where borrowing costs remain elevated and risk appetite is falling, investors are becoming less willing to assign premium valuations to tokens that depend heavily on continued incentive spending. Another development adding pressure is the new institutional-lending framework. The framework allows Ethena's trading team to approve qualifying borrowers without an individual Risk Committee vote, while the committee keeps oversight and can call in a borrower if a criterion is considered to have failed. The framework applies to bilateral loans with full recourse to the borrower or a parent guarantee. The structure raises questions about counterparty concentration, collateral quality, and disclosure. Reports noted that the public framework does not set a numerical aggregate lending cap or per-borrower concentration ceiling. If institutional investors become concerned about lending transparency, confidence in USDe backing could weaken and put additional pressure on ENA. This is particularly important because the risks associated with synthetic dollars extend beyond the spot price into private credit, custody, and hedging. Valuation makes the situation more sensitive. At $0.15764, ENA trades with a market capitalization of about $2.14 billion, ranking #43 among all cryptocurrencies. The price is 89.57% below its all-time high of $1.52. These levels suggest that investors are still pricing in substantial future growth for USDe, but maintaining that expectation requires continued USDe expansion, stable funding rates, and manageable risk disclosure. Any disappointment across these areas could trigger further pressure. Institutional activity also reflects divided expectations. Standard Chartered initiated research coverage, forecasting approximately eightfold USDe growth over the next two years. At the same time, one trader projected a long-term $1.52 target, a personal forecast, not a confirmed price path. However, differences between long-term bullish targets and the current market price show that confidence in ENA's valuation is not uniform. ⭕ Bull & Bear Path For traders and investors considering whether to buy the dip, three developments deserve attention. First, monitor USDe backing and lending disclosure. Clear borrower balances, collateral ratios, and concentration limits could reduce uncertainty, while continued gaps in disclosure would indicate growing transparency concerns. Second, watch USDe supply growth toward the $7.5 billion fee-switch threshold. Actual supply growth would matter more than announcements because it could change how protocol revenue flows to ENA. Third, compare funding rates and USDe peg stability with ENA price action. A stable peg with falling ENA would suggest token-specific selling, whereas peg stress would suggest broader protocol risk. Technically, the $0.15764 price and the 24-hour range of $0.15727 to $0.16689 provide an initial reference point, but neither confirms a reversal. The chart shows a prior high near $0.29343 and a prior low near $0.13484. Traders should watch whether buyers can defend the recent low near $0.15727 and whether volume supports any recovery. The MACD on the chart is negative at -0.00335, with DIF at -0.01152 and DEA at -0.00817, which points to continued bearish momentum. A sustained move above $0.16689 would offer stronger evidence of improving sentiment, while renewed selling below $0.15727 would suggest that the market is still repricing risk. A break below $0.13484 would open a deeper downside, while a hold above $0.16689 could open a move toward $0.17308. ⭕ ND Crypto Guru Take _How to trade it, and how to limit risk:_ Trade only after confirmation, not in the middle of the range. For a long, wait for a close above $0.16689. For a short, wait for a close below $0.15727. Risk only 1% to 2% of capital per trade, use a stop-loss just beyond the level that invalidates your idea, avoid high leverage, and do not add to a losing trade. If the setup is unclear, staying out is a valid decision. Conclusion ENA's 4.92% decline reflects more than ordinary profit-taking. Regulatory uncertainty, aggressive incentive spending, and questions surrounding the new lending framework have converged at a time when the token's valuation leaves limited room for disappointment. The fact that USDe held near $1.00 offers a small sign of stability, but it does not establish a market bottom for ENA. For now, the more disciplined approach is to monitor lending disclosure, USDe supply growth, and funding conditions before treating $0.15764 as an attractive entry point. The next phase of ENA's price action will depend less on short-term sentiment and more on whether its ambitious synthetic dollar expansion can translate into sustainable, transparent financial performance. $ENA

$GRVT As of Oct. 25, Circle’s USDC made up around 80% of the net 30-day drop among the 13 largest stablecoins, according to monthly DeFiLlama figures. Circle’s token lost $4.69 billion in the month. The 13 tokens lost $5.82 billion in net value. USDC’s market cap was $71.743 billion, down $878.72 million just in the last week. Tether gives up $1.29 billion and keeps a 60.74% share The total stablecoin market declined to $300.36 billion on Oct. 25. DeFiLlama data shows it has lost $12.73 billion since May 22. Tether’s USDT fell less over the month. It had a market cap of $182.423 billion, down $1.29 billion in 30 days, down $990.43 million in 7 days and still possesses 60.74% of the market. The seven-day shrinkage across the 15 largest stablecoins was about $1.90 billion. Ethena’s USDe fell $305.61 million over the month. World Liberty Financial’s USD1 declined $444.67 million, or 10.10%. Falcon’s USDf added $511.16 million, a 42.32% increase, while PayPal’s PYUSD added $239.53 million in the same 30-day period. Tokenized Treasuries shed $1.55 billion since August Minting stablecoins generally increases supply, while redeeming them for fiat diminishes it, potentially pulling money that might otherwise have gone into buying Bitcoin or Ether. Supply grew during the 2020-2021 bull market and shrank after Terra’s collapse in 2022, which just so happened to coincide with a protracted crypto bear market. Bitcoin is trading near $80,000, far off its October 2025 record of around $126,000. Tokenized U.S. Treasury products like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Ondo’s USDY also shrank, declining from $16.2 billion on Aug. 12 to $14.65 billion on Oct. 25, according to data from rwa.xyz. Those who hold the Treasury tokens can redeem them to buy stablecoins or risk assets or shift cash back into bank accounts. The combined fall was $1.55 billion. Standard Chartered postponed its prediction of a $2 trillion stablecoin market from 2028 to 2030. The stall in supply growth is cyclical and tied to weak crypto markets, said Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, who noted supply has been stuck between $300 billion and $320 billion over the past year. Circle is also defending the economics of USDC. Cryptopolitan reports that Circle’s October 16 blog post disclosed that ~$819 million, or about 59 cents on the dollar, of the company’s ~$1.4 billion revenue in the first half of 2026 went to firms distributing USDC and to transaction costs. The post was seen as a reaction to Open USD, a rival token launched June 30 that promises free minting and redemption. The consortium behind Open USD says partners can keep all the interest its reserves earn, minus a small management fee. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them.

$GRVT Star Xu, CEO of OKX, has raised significant concerns about Binance’s promotion of $USDe during a recent podcast. He characterized $USDe, issued by Ethena, as a ‘tokenized hedge fund’ that presents higher risks than implied through its delta-neutral strategy. His insights suggest that the leverage mechanisms tied to $USDe could lead to serious financial repercussions, particularly in light of the recent ‘1010’ crash. For further details, refer to the tweet by WuBlockchain. The Key Development The broader crypto market is currently exhibiting mixed signals, with major assets showing varying momentum. Xu’s remarks come at a time when $USDe is under scrutiny for its leverage strategy, particularly the practice of borrowing USDT against $USDe and using it to generate more $USDe. This cycle could heighten risk exposure for users, leading to potential cascading liquidations similar to those seen during the ‘1010’ crash. Ethena’s partnership with Binance to offer $USDe as a stablecoin also raises questions about risk management practices in the rapidly evolving crypto derivatives space. $USDe is a stablecoin issued by Ethena, designed to provide users with yield opportunities while maintaining a stable value. However, its structure and the leverage strategies associated with it have attracted scrutiny, especially from prominent figures like Star Xu, emphasizing the need for better risk controls in the sector. Key Levels to Watch Traders should closely monitor $USDe’s performance and any developments related to its leverage strategy. The recent comments from Star Xu could influence market sentiment and prompt regulatory scrutiny. As the crypto landscape evolves, understanding the implications of such leverage mechanisms will be crucial for risk management and investment decisions.

Why the buyback math leads to $2 Once those thresholds are crossed, the $ENA valuation increasingly depends on how much of Ethena’s economics can be directed toward token holders. The approved framework allocates 95% of qualifying net revenue paid to the Ethena Foundation from covered businesses toward $ENA buybacks. Ethena does not retain the full yield generated by the assets supporting $USDe, making the distinction between gross and net revenue central to the calculation. Blockworks Advisory’s analysis modeled the protocol’s share of gross revenue increasing with $USDe supply, beginning at about 5% around $7.5 billion and reaching 20% by $20 billion. The model used a 6% protocol yield as an illustrative assumption, not a guaranteed return. At the much larger scale envisioned by Standard Chartered, those economics become substantial. The bank estimates that if $USDe reaches $40 billion, $ENA purchases could amount to roughly 23% of the token’s current market value annually if its price remained unchanged. Standard Chartered does not expect such a percentage to persist. It argues that investors would capitalize the expected stream of purchases into $ENA’s valuation, pushing the token higher and reducing annual buybacks as a percentage of its market capitalization. The bank points to Uniswap as an analog, saying UNI’s annualized buyback percentage has settled around 3% to 4% as the token appreciated after activating its fee switch. Applying a comparable equilibrium to Ethena underpins Standard Chartered’s $2 target. But the mechanism introduces its own constraint. Capturing a larger share of Ethena’s revenue for the protocol can reduce what remains available to sUSDe holders. That creates a balancing act: Ethena needs enough margin to support $ENA purchases while maintaining sufficiently competitive yields to keep attracting the deposits required for $USDe to grow. The assumptions become more demanding as supply rises. The 6% return used in the framework has not been guaranteed across market cycles, while the higher revenue-capture tiers have yet to be tested at the scale Standard Chartered expects. That leaves investors with several nearer-term checkpoints before the $2 target becomes relevant. $USDe must first cross the $7.5 billion fee-switch threshold and reclaim its previous peak. Beyond that, Ethena will have to show that its newer yield strategies can absorb tens of billions of dollars without materially compressing returns. How quickly those thresholds are crossed will determine whether Standard Chartered’s projected buyback engine begins to resemble the one embedded in its valuation model. $COST