Zcashの‌価格

Market Analysis | November 11, 2026 THE MARKET IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIQUIDITY PRESSURE A successful network upgrade has not prevented Zcash from suffering a sharp correction. Bitcoin has slipped below $74,000 as US spot ETF withdrawals continue, while LT has posted a short-term gain without enough verified trading-volume data to establish the strength of its recovery. These developments tell different stories, but they raise one common investment question: is the cryptocurrency market losing the depth of demand needed to sustain higher prices? My read: this is a liquidity and demand problem, not yet evidence of a market-wide collapse. Bitcoin ETF flows, spot-market participation and the ability of buyers to defend important support levels will matter more than isolated price rebounds. MARKET SNAPSHOT The following figures are taken from the supplied trading-chart snapshot. They have not been independently authenticated against an archived Bitget chart. The original brief identifies the analysis as 15-minute chart analysis, so that timeframe is retained provisionally. Zcash (ZEC/USDT) Supplied price: $977.28 | 24-hour change: -14.55% - 24-hour high: $1,199.26 - 24-hour low: $966.29 - MACD: -0.76 - DIF: -12.84 - DEA: -12.08 - Support: $966.29 → $950 → $900 - Resistance: $991.25 → $1,022.31 → $1,053.36 ZEC has the weakest short-term price structure in this comparison. Its negative MACD reading and DIF below DEA indicate bearish momentum on the supplied chart. The immediate test is $966.29. A sustained 15-minute close below that level would expose $950 and potentially $900. Recovery above $991.25 would provide an early sign of stabilisation. Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Supplied price: $73,739.54 | 24-hour change: -1.11% - 24-hour high: $74,849.99 - 24-hour low: $72,732.01 - DIF: -37.90 - DEA: -42.96 - Support: $73,450 → $73,217 → $72,732 - Resistance: $74,179 → $74,850 → $75,500 Bitcoin remains below the $74,850 resistance area. However, the supplied DIF is above the DEA, meaning the MACD relationship is more constructive than the original bearish description suggested. Both values are negative, so this is not confirmation of a bullish reversal. A sustained move above $74,850 would strengthen the recovery case. The originally supplied MACD value of -5.06 is omitted because it conflicts with the supplied DIF and DEA under the standard MACD calculation. LT (LTUSDT Perpetual) Supplied price: $45.244 | 24-hour change: +1.39% - 24-hour high: $45.485 - 24-hour low: $44.580 - MACD: -0.013 - DIF: 0.091 - DEA: 0.104 - Support: $45.07 → $44.80 → $44.58 - Resistance: $45.485 → $45.58 LT has retreated from its $45.485 high, while its DIF remains below its DEA. That suggests weakening short-term momentum despite the positive daily return. A break above $45.485 would improve the recovery structure; losing $44.58 would weaken it. All three chart snapshots and technical indicators require confirmation from the original exchange screenshots before publication. THE FULL ANALYSIS I. ZEC: Network Progress Has Not Translated Into Sustained Buying Zcash's correction highlights the difference between improving network infrastructure and improving token-market demand. The NU7 upgrade activated on November 6, 2026, at block 3,543,405. It reduced the target block interval from 75 seconds to 25 seconds and introduced the Network Sustainability Mechanism, which directs 60% of transaction fees into a reserve for future network support. Block subsidies were adjusted proportionally, preserving the intended daily issuance rate and the existing 21 million ZEC supply cap. These changes were confirmed in reporting on the upgrade by The Block and ZecStats. [1][2] The technical development is significant, but the token's price response has been disappointing. The upgrade did not establish a lasting floor beneath ZEC's valuation. One possible explanation is profit-taking after the event. Traders who bought ahead of NU7 may have decided to realise gains once the upgrade became operational. That is a plausible market interpretation, not a confirmed explanation for the entire decline. Investment-product flows provide another piece of evidence. According to The Block's November 10 report, citing SoSoValue data, Grayscale's Zcash Trust ETF (ZCSH) recorded more than $15 million in November net outflows through November 10, excluding that day's figures, following $46.25 million in October net outflows. [3] These withdrawals indicate weaker demand for ZCSH. They should not be treated as a direct measurement of all ZEC spot-market selling, since ETF flows represent activity within a particular investment vehicle. The earlier liquidation figures also need caution. The original claim of $4.13 million in ZEC long liquidations and $27.08 million across the wider market has not been independently confirmed against a dated liquidation-tracker record. Those numbers are therefore excluded from this analysis. For traders, the immediate question is whether ZEC can hold the supplied $966.29 support. A breakdown would increase the risk of a move towards $950 and $900. A recovery above $991.25 would be an early indication that sellers are losing control. The longer-term investment case remains separate from this short-term technical weakness. NU7 may improve network functionality, but its eventual economic value depends on actual adoption, transaction activity and sustained demand for ZEC. II. Bitcoin: ETF Withdrawals Are A Measurable Warning, Not The Whole Market Bitcoin's position is more complicated than a simple bearish price chart suggests. Farside Investors recorded $201.0 million in aggregate US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows on November 9, followed by another $95.0 million on November 10. The two sessions therefore produced $296.0 million in combined net withdrawals. [4] BlackRock's IBIT recorded $213.2 million in outflows on November 9 and $78.2 million on November 10. IBIT's individual outflow exceeded the November 9 aggregate because other funds, including Morgan Stanley's MSBT, recorded inflows that partially offset the withdrawals. This distinction is important when interpreting institutional demand. IBIT also recorded eight consecutive sessions of outflows from October 30 through November 10. That is a meaningful deterioration in one major channel of Bitcoin investment demand, although ETF activity alone cannot establish what every institutional investor is doing. There are also buyers moving in the opposite direction. Strategy announced an additional purchase of 1,036 BTC, bringing its reported holdings to 850,364 BTC. This shows that corporate accumulation continued even while ETF flows were negative. The two developments can coexist because different investors have different investment horizons and funding strategies. Miner selling adds another dimension. MARA Holdings disclosed in its November 9, 2026 Form 8-K, under Item 2.02, with its shareholder letter attached as Exhibit 99.1, that it sold 13,597 BTC after the end of the third quarter at an average price of approximately $81,039, generating around $1.1 billion. The company used $750 million of those proceeds to repay its Bitcoin-collateralised loans, releasing 17,477 BTC previously pledged as collateral. [5] This was a significant balance-sheet transaction. It should not be interpreted as $1.1 billion of Bitcoin being sold specifically to finance AI infrastructure. MARA described its wider capital-allocation priorities as including liquidity, capital projects and other initiatives. The macroeconomic environment provides another reason for caution. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released October CPI data on November 10. Headline CPI increased 0.4% month-on-month, while the index excluding food and energy increased 0.3%. These figures were reported against September's respective increases of 0.6% and 0.3%. [6] Reuters reported that both monthly figures exceeded economists' expectations and that financial markets strengthened their expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate increase. [7] One limitation matters here: because October 2025 survey data were unavailable following the government shutdown, the BLS could not publish the normal October 2026 year-on-year CPI comparison. For Bitcoin, the implications are mainly about financial conditions. If persistent inflation keeps Treasury yields elevated, investors may become more selective about speculative assets. Higher financing costs can also make leveraged exposure less attractive. But the relationship is not automatic. Bitcoin's price also responds to spot demand, liquidity, dollar movements, investor positioning and expectations about future monetary policy. The technical levels in the supplied snapshot remain important. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $74,850 to provide stronger evidence of recovery. Until then, $73,450, $73,217 and the $72,732 daily low are important downside references. The strongest confirmation would be a recovery accompanied by improving spot volume and a return to positive aggregate ETF flows. III. LT: A Smaller Market Requires Greater Caution LT's supplied chart shows a gain of 1.39%, but the price has retreated from $45.485 to $45.244. Without a verified historical turnover and open-interest record, there is insufficient evidence to describe the move as a liquidity-driven pump or to attribute it to a particular group of traders. The technical picture is still useful. DIF at 0.091 remains below DEA at 0.104, while the MACD reading is -0.013. That indicates weakening short-term momentum despite the positive daily performance. The $45.485 level is the immediate resistance to watch. A sustained break above it would strengthen the recovery case. On the downside, $44.80 and $44.58 are important support references. LT should be treated as an individual derivatives-market setup rather than evidence of institutional capital rotation across the wider cryptocurrency market. IV. The Larger Issue Is The Quality Of Demand The three assets highlight different weaknesses in market participation. ZEC has made a significant technical improvement, but its price has struggled to sustain the optimism surrounding that development. Its investment-product outflows add evidence of weaker demand through one channel. Bitcoin remains the market leader, but its ETF figures show that institutional investment flows can deteriorate even while corporate accumulation continues. MARA's sale also illustrates how balance-sheet decisions can introduce additional Bitcoin supply into the market. LT, meanwhile, demonstrates why short-term price performance needs to be considered alongside trading depth and participation. The October inflation report adds a macroeconomic constraint. Persistent price pressures can limit the Federal Reserve's flexibility, influence bond yields and increase the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets. My central concern is that a market rebound could prove fragile if prices improve without corresponding improvements in spot demand and institutional flows. That does not mean a broader collapse is inevitable. A return of ETF inflows, stronger spot-market participation and stabilisation in Bitcoin could improve sentiment across the market. ZEC could also regain investor interest if its network improvements translate into measurable adoption. The evidence needs to come first. For now, I would monitor aggregate ETF flows, Bitcoin spot volume, Treasury yields, liquidation activity and whether altcoins begin participating in any recovery led by BTC. WHAT INVESTORS SHOULD WATCH - Bitcoin: A sustained recovery above $74,850, supported by improving spot participation. - ZEC: Whether buyers defend $966.29 or the market moves towards lower support. - ETF demand: Whether US spot Bitcoin funds return to net inflows after the November 9–10 withdrawals. - Inflation: Whether subsequent economic data support a less restrictive Federal Reserve outlook. - Market liquidity: Whether price advances are accompanied by stronger trading activity rather than isolated movements in individual derivatives contracts. STREET DEBATE Is the current weakness primarily a temporary liquidity problem, or is institutional demand beginning to deteriorate more deeply? Can Bitcoin recover above $74,850 while ETF flows remain negative? And does ZEC's successful network upgrade still provide a convincing investment case after such a sharp correction? Share your analysis and the evidence supporting your position. $BTC $ZEC $LT

$ZEC long

🚨 Traders, Is $ZEC Preparing for a Bounce or Another Breakdown? 👀 ZEC is trading around 970.33, down 15.45% in 24 hours, with strong selling pressure dominating the 1-hour chart. 📈 Resistance: 1,047.44 | 1,069.82 📉 Support: 966.29 🔥 Next Possible Move: A recovery above 1,047.44 could bring 1,069.82 into focus, while a break below 966.29 may trigger further downside pressure. ⚠️ Pro Tip: RSI is deeply oversold, indicating a possible short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish. Watch for candle confirmation before entering. $ZEC

$ZEC Lost The Trendline, Now Below 1K 📉 Yesterday 1,143 was the line to hold. Daily candle sliced straight through it and the 1,044 - 1,070 demand zone, now trading around 972. 🔴 1,143 (broken trendline) 🔴 1,044 (old demand, now resistance) 🟢 947 support 🟢 ~900 where the falling and rising trendlines meet 🟢 800 if that gives way My read: no catching knives here. I want to see 947 or the 900 confluence hold with a reaction before looking long. A daily reclaim of 1,044 flips it back. The risk: lose 900 and there's not much until 800. Where does $ZEC find a floor? 👇 NFA