Trade deficit widens to 60.3 billions, oil tankers bypass the Strait of Hormuz, cargo volume and confidence both decline

⑴ According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, in March, U.S. imports increased by 2.3% month-on-month to $381.2 billion, and exports grew by 2% to $320.9 billion. The faster growth in imports compared to exports led to the trade deficit widening by 4.3% from February to $60.3 billion. ⑵ Although U.S. crude oil exports rose by $2.8 billion, other petroleum product exports increased by $1.7 billion, and food and feed exports also increased by over $1 billion, imports of automobiles and parts surged by $3.6 billion. Imports of consumer and capital goods also expanded, completely offsetting the boost from oil exports. ⑶ The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz has risen sharply. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, prior to the conflict, an average of about 130 ships passed through this waterway daily, while on the first day of the new U.S. initiative on Monday, only six ships traversed it, and as of Tuesday afternoon, just one had passed through. ⑷ Shipping companies are facing dual pressures: first, the physical risks of crew casualties and vessel damage; second, risks to brand reputation. Meanwhile, Iran has launched the "Persian Gulf Strait Administration," requiring vessels to obtain navigation rules via an official email, and electronic jamming has already caused navigation system failures on some ships. ⑸ From a trading psychology perspective, the actual passage data, together with Trump's tariff comments, have amplified market concerns over supply chain disruptions. Shippers are saving 30.6% on intermodal costs in the spot market, but due to geopolitical uncertainty, companies are more inclined to observe rather than increase long-term contracted shipping volumes. ⑹ In March, sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. rose by 7.4% month-on-month to 682,000 units, but freight volume dropped by 0.3%. Coupled with Volvo's 10% quarterly sales decline due to intensified competition from China and weak U.S. consumer confidence, this shows a divergence between trade flow and end-user demand. Attention should be paid to whether passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz improve in the future.