- Markets enter the final week of 2025 as housing data and Fed minutes guide positioning.
- Jobless claims and PMI releases shape early 2026 views on labor and factory momentum.
- China’s 2025 silver export rules raise supply risks as U.S. markets close Thursday.
Markets enter the final week of 2025 with a short U.S. calendar and several market-moving releases. U.S. stock markets trade through Wednesday, December 31, then close Thursday, January 1, for New Year’s Day. Bond markets also follow an early close at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, which can reduce liquidity.
Major indexes head into the final sessions of the year with double-digit gains for 2025. That backdrop puts extra attention on week-to-week data, since many desks adjust exposure into year-end. Investors also track a small set of widely held stocks, even without major earnings reports.
Several large-cap names rank on the watchlists, including McDonald’s, Super Micro Computer, DoorDash, and Cisco Systems. Traders also monitor Tesla-related headlines after debate around self-driving timelines and hardware needs. With earnings season quiet, macro headlines may drive the week’s larger moves.
Housing market signals: Pending home sales and home prices
Monday features the National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index for November at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. The index tracks contract signings, so it can guide expectations for near-term closings. NAR lists the release on December 29 as part of its housing schedule.
Economists expect a 0.8% monthly increase, which would lift the index reading to about 76.8. The print matters because it can reflect how buyers respond to rates and listings. Investors often link the series to spending on housing-related goods and services.
Tuesday adds another housing input with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for October. Economists have projected slower year-over-year price growth than in September. Together, the two releases can sharpen views on housing activity and price pressure.
Fed policy details and labor data: FOMC minutes and jobless claims
Tuesday also brings minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s December 9-10 meeting. The Fed lowered the federal funds target range to 3.50% to 3.75% at that meeting. The minutes can clarify how officials discussed inflation progress and future rate paths.
Wednesday delivers initial jobless claims, which investors treat as a timely labor-market gauge. Markets monitor claims as a high-frequency signal for layoffs and job finding. The latest report showed 214,000 initial claims for the week ending December 20. Continuing claims rose to 1.923 million in that release.
Related: Fed Adds $2.5B in Liquidity via Overnight Repo Operation
Manufacturing PMIs, China’s silver export rules, and holiday trading
Friday delivers two factory readings for December: the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. ISM releases its PMI on the first business day of the month at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. S&P Global publishes the final December manufacturing PMI data on January 2.
Recent readings showed mixed signals across the two surveys. ISM reported a 48.2 reading for November, which signals contraction because it sits below 50. S&P Global’s flash U.S. manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in December, which signals modest expansion.
Beyond data, metals markets face a policy change that starts Thursday, January 1. China’s Ministry of Commerce published application requirements for state-trading enterprises exporting silver for 2026-2027, alongside tungsten and antimony. The document sets exporter conditions, including compliance checks and production or export-track-record thresholds.
Reports linked the rule change to tighter control over silver exports, and prices moved on supply concerns. Tesla CEO Elon Musk commented on social media that the change “is not good” because the industry relies on silver. U.S. markets remain closed on Thursday, which can compress reactions into fewer sessions.
