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OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a small production increase of 188,000 barrels per day in June, marking the third consecutive month of rising output. However, given the ongoing Iran war resulting in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil supply from the Gulf region remains severely restricted. As such, this production boost is largely just on paper.This increase aims to demonstrate that OPEC+ is ready to ramp up supply immediately once the war ends, and also suggests that, despite the United Arab Emirates' exit, OPEC+ remains committed to business as usual. Analysts noted, "This is less about actually raising output and more about showing that OPEC+ is still in control."According to the agreement, Saudi Arabia’s June quota will rise to 10.291 million barrels per day, far above its actual March output of 7.76 million barrels per day. Seven member countries—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman—participated in the meeting (the United Arab Emirates withdrew from OPEC as of May 1).The Iran war and the blockade of the Strait have severely limited crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Analysts said that even if shipping in the strait resumes, it could still take weeks or even months for oil flows to return to normal levels.The supply disruption has pushed oil prices to a four-year high above $125. Analysts warn there could be widespread jet fuel shortages and a global inflation spike within one or two months. According to an OPEC report, OPEC+ crude oil production in March fell by 7.7 million barrels per day compared to February.

ChainCatcher news, according to Golden Ten Data, CME “Fed Watch” shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. By July, the probability of maintaining rates is 88.8%, with a 10.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 0.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 83%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 16%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 1%.

Silver fell by 0.9%, and gold dropped by 0.5%. Futures for the three major U.S. stock indices rose by 0.2%.