Lighter Shifts 25% of LIT Supply as Traders Anticipate Possible Airdrop
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Lighter moved 250 million LIT tokens, about 25% of supply, sparking big airdrop talk before the TGE.
If split across 12 million points, each could get around 20.8 LIT worth maybe $68 at speculated prices.
Network upgrade hits December 21, volume’s exploding, and Polymarket bets point to a late December drop.
Lighter, the decentralized perpetual exchange on Solana, just moved 250 million LIT tokens, about 25% of the total supply, sparking big talk about a user airdrop before the token generation event by December 31. Analysts spotted the transfer, and people are guessing these could go to points holders from the program’s seasons.
25% of the lighter token moved to airdrop10 minutes ago 250m $lit tokens were transferred, most likely allocation for @Lighter_xyz user distribution at tge250M tokens / 12M points means ~20.8 tokens per point if the drop is linear. at current @pacifica_fi premarket price… pic.twitter.com/R0ds3zFnkk— fiyalkin (@fiyalkin)
December 20, 2025
The points system rewarded trading in Season 1 (private beta January to September 2025, 100,000 to 110,000 users, $550 billion volume, 8.65 million points) and Season 2 (public mainnet October to December, adding 500,000 users for 640,000 to 750,000 total, weekly 250,000 to 600,000 points, no wash trading).
With roughly 12 million points out, a straight split of 250 million LIT would mean about 20.8 tokens per point. Market guesses put each at $3 to $5, so points could be worth $58 to $104, or around $68 average per some chatter.
Network Upgrade and Timing
A network upgrade hits December 21 at 12 UTC, including an airdrop allocation module from past updates. CEO Vladimir Novakovski keeps it mysterious: “The tiger doesn’t let you know in advance when it will appear.” Polymarket bets lean toward a December 29 drop, with insiders wagering on timing and fully diluted value.
Trading volume tells the growth story. Daily perps started under $1 billion early 2025, climbed to $2 to $4 billion mid year, then often topped $5 billion from August, peaking $18 to $20 billion single days in October and November. Annualized fees hit $167.9 million, 30 day volume $248.3 billion, open interest around $1.7 billion.
Community discussion mixes excitement and caution. Hexdrunker sees points from $33 low to $150 high. ProMint pegs premarket $3 to $5 per LIT. The 250 million move has everyone watching, could be the airdrop fuel or something else. With the upgrade and TGE looming, Lighter’s year end plans have the whole perp crowd on edge.
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One of the Most Anticipated Altcoins May Be Approaching Launch – Tokens Are Moving, Here Are the Latest Data
On-chain data shows that the Lighter team transferred 250 million LIT tokens (approximately 25%) of the total supply of 1 billion tokens from one token contract to another.
The fact that this transfer happened recently has reinforced market expectations that this is the share allocated for the first airdrop. The team had previously indicated a 25-30% range for the initial distribution.
Pre-market pricing also supports this expectation. In the pre-launch market, Lighter’s fully diluted value (FDV) is priced at approximately $3.3–$3.5 billion, which points to $3.3–$3.5 per LIT. If the 25% carried over was indeed reserved for the airdrop, then at current pre-market prices, the token distribution pool could exceed $800 million.
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In terms of airdrop mathematics, a pool of 250 million LIT, assuming a total of 12–12.5 million points, translates to approximately 20–21 LIT per point. This translates to around $66–70 per point, depending on the token price.
On the other hand, expectations regarding the launch timing have also begun to become clearer. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Lighter not holding a TGE (Token Generation Event) in 2025 is priced at 35%, while the most likely launch date is December 29, 2025. This scenario, along with expectations of an airdrop, has increased investor interest.
*This is not investment advice.
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Good Morning! 11 Days Until New Year: Here's Your Daily Alpha:
1️⃣ Lighter ($LIT)
Community researchers spotted a 250M $LIT token transfer from the team. Many believe these could be airdrop tokens (25% allocation). TGE expected before Christmas, Polymarket odds sitting at 90%. Project backed by Founders Fund, Ribbit & Robinhood at $1.5B valuation.
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New season is live. Earn the seasonal badge by reaching Score 80 or higher. Previous season badges available to claim. Sony's L2 keeps building, don't sleep on this one.
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