Shaw: Quantum computing is still extremely far from cracking Bitcoin

According to Odaily, Shaw posted on X stating that there is a significant gap between the actual progress of quantum computing and what is portrayed in the media and perceived by the public. Although the field is making progress, quantum computers will not be able to achieve their claimed capabilities within the next 40 to 50 years. Regarding hash functions such as SHA-256, even with the optimal application of Grover's algorithm, the search space can only be reduced from 2 to the 256th power to 2 to the 128th power, and 2 to the 128th power is still physically unbreakable.

Shaw pointed out that the most advanced quantum computers today cannot even factor the number 21 into 3 and 7 without knowing the result in advance. To break bitcoin, a quantum computer would have to repeatedly compute the real-time network within minutes, a leap in capability far beyond the progress from 1950s computers to modern server clusters. Modern cryptography anticipated future increases in computing power at its inception. Current fears or hype about quantum computing lack factual basis.