Geopolitical tensions rise, "Christmas Eve" sees a precious metals surge: silver breaks through $70 mark, gold hits a record $4,500!

Special Topic: Witnessing History, New Highs Again! Gold Price Breaks Through $4,500!

　　

　　At the end of 2025, the global precious metals market experienced an unprecedented and powerful surge, with gold and silver prices continuously hitting new records.

soared above the 4,500 mark, instantly broke through the key level of $70 per ounce, also repeatedly set new historical highs, reached a new three-year high. This rally was driven not only by multiple factors such as heightened geopolitical tensions, expectations of Fed

　　The Record-Breaking Rally in Silver Prices

　　

　　Such sustained strong performance has made investors very optimistic about silver’s future. Experts point out that the silver market has long been in a state of shortage, and the continued growth of industrial demand is the core driver behind the price surge.

　　In addition, heightened risk aversion, a weakening US dollar, and declining yields have provided further support for silver. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, emphasized in his analysis that the next target for silver may well be $75, but year-end profit-taking could trigger a short-term pullback, so investors should remain vigilant.

　　Gold prices Hit New Highs Again

　　

rose 0.9%, approaching the $4,500 level and setting a new all-time high, closing at $4,484.5 per ounce. During Wednesday’s Asian session, gold maintained its rally and, as of 08:00 (UTC+8), briefly reached a record high of $4,509.90 per ounce. So far this year, gold prices have soared about 72%, thanks to a combination of positive factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions, the

　　Strong Rally in Platinum and Palladium

　　

　　Dual Impact of a Weaker Dollar and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

　　

　　This week, due to the holiday, trading hours were shortened, but the overall weakness of the dollar still made dollar-denominated metals more attractive to overseas buyers.

　　

　　Strategists at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said this decline is not a one-off event, but the continuation of a long-term trend. Although US Q3 GDP data showed strong economic growth, with an annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of 4.3%, surpassing economists’ forecast of 3.3%, this has not reversed the market’s pessimism toward the dollar. On the contrary, the market is more focused on expectations for Fed rate cuts.

　　London Stock Exchange Group estimates show that there is an 87% probability the Fed will not cut rates at its end-January meeting, but interest rate futures indicate the next rate cut could be in June next year, with two 25-basis-point cuts expected in 2026.

　　Erik Bregar, Head of FX and Precious Metals Risk Management at Silver Gold Bull, pointed out that the dollar could fall further in Q1 next year, as signs of a weakening labor market may force the Fed to make greater concessions, and possibly even see a dovish Fed chair pushing for rate cuts.

　　In addition, the US December consumer confidence index fell by 3.8 points to 89.1, below the expected 91.0, adding further downward pressure on the dollar.

　　Tom Simons, Chief US Economist at Jefferies, warned in a report that while the GDP data appears strong on the surface, it may be subject to significant downward revision and there could be a clear slowdown in Q4.

　　Geopolitical Tensions Fueling the Surge

　　Geopolitical events have further ignited market risk aversion. On Tuesday, the US told the United Nations it would impose “maximum” sanctions to deprive Venezuelan President Maduro of resources, while Russia warned that other Latin American countries could be the next targets.

　　On Monday, US President Trump stated that he may retain or sell the recently seized Venezuelan oil and detain the related vessels. He issued a warning to Maduro, saying this was his “last chance,” stressing that the aim was to force Maduro from power.

　　According to The Wall Street Journal, the US this week deployed a large number of special operations planes and transport aircraft to the Caribbean, including at least 10 CV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft and C-17 transport planes, providing more options for potential military action.

　　On the Ukraine front, Russian missile and drone attacks killed at least three Ukrainians, including a child, and caused widespread blackouts, prompting neighboring Poland to scramble jets. Ukrainian forces withdrew from the embattled town of Siversk, with Russian troops threatening several key cities, forming a “Donetsk arc.”

　　The Russian Ministry of Defense said it had launched large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s military and energy facilities, while Ukraine’s energy ministry indicated emergency blackouts in multiple regions.

　　In addition, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russian and US diplomats met to discuss removing obstacles to relations, but the main issues remained unresolved. These events have increased global uncertainty, driving investors to seek refuge in precious metals.

　　

　　Overall, this precious metals bull market is not only the result of economic factors, but also the outcome of intertwined geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. Wednesday is Christmas Eve, with most European and US markets closed or closing early, and no major economic data releases. Thin trading could trigger significant volatility or short-term profit-taking risks. Looking ahead, with continued growth in industrial demand and persistent risk aversion, the precious metals market still has room to rise. Investors need to closely monitor Fed actions and global hot events to seize potential opportunities.

　　

Editor: Zhu Henan