Report: The Crypto Market Appears Calm on the Surface but Turbulence is Brewing Beneath; Bitcoin Remains in a Downtrend but May Turn Bullish in January

PANews, December 29 – According to the 10x Research weekly market report, the crypto market is entering the new year with cyclical low activity, but derivatives positions are quietly sending a completely different signal. Volatility is narrowing, funding rates are gradually rising, and leverage remains high, even as trading volume and participation continue to decline. ETF capital flows, stablecoin trading activity, and futures positions are no longer moving in sync, resulting in a market that appears calm on the surface but is actually turbulent underneath. The options market is undergoing adjustments, which typically signal a shift in market structure rather than a continuation of the current trend. Meanwhile, technical indicators are approaching critical points, and even minor fluctuations could trigger larger-scale asset allocation adjustments.

Crypto trading volume has dropped by 30% compared to usual. As the orderly unwinding of futures contracts continues, funding rates have risen slightly. The downward trend for bitcoin persists, but may turn bullish in January. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43%, indicating a bullish signal, while the stochastic indicator is at 30%, indicating a bearish signal. Bitcoin is 4.5% away from triggering a trend reversal, with the current trend being bearish. The key short-term bullish/bearish level is $88,421, and the main bullish/bearish level is $98,759. Ethereum may also see a bullish trend reversal in January. Ethereum's RSI is at 44%, showing a bullish signal, while the stochastic indicator is at 23%, showing a bearish signal. Ethereum is 5% away from triggering a trend reversal, with the current trend being bearish. The key short-term bullish/bearish level is $2,991, and the main bullish/bearish level is $3,363. The realized volatility for both bitcoin and ethereum has started to decline significantly: bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility is 38.2%, below its 30-day average of 45%, a decrease of 7%. Ethereum's 30-day realized volatility is 61.2%, 5 percentage points lower than its 30-day average of 66.6%.