Year-End Dilemma: Can Bitcoin Hold the $80,000 Level?

In the prediction market, the probability of bitcoin falling below $80,000 in the remaining days of December is only 16%. Traders are putting real money on the line, anchoring bitcoin’s year-end price in the $90,000 range.

On Christmas Eve, data from the prediction market platform Polymarket showed that traders believe the probability of bitcoin falling below $80,000 in December is only 16%, while the probability of dropping below $75,000 is even lower at 5%.

Meanwhile, the probability of bitcoin breaking through the $100,000 mark before the end of the year is also just 5%. These numbers paint a clear market picture: with only a few days left in 2025, bitcoin is most likely to fluctuate within its current price range.

1. Market Expectations

● The latest data from Polymarket shows traders’ collective judgment on bitcoin’s year-end price. According to data from December 24, the market probability of “bitcoin falling below $80,000 in December” is 16%, and the probability of “falling below $75,000” is 5%.

● Meanwhile, the probability of “bitcoin rising to $100,000 again before the end of 2025” is also just 5%. On December 23, this probability was 8%, while the probability of “rising again to $95,000” was 25%.

● Currently, the price of bitcoin is hovering around $90,000, having retreated about 15%-20% from the historical high of $108,000 reached in early December.

2. Sentiment Shift

● Market sentiment has undergone a significant shift from extreme optimism to cautious observation. When bitcoin first broke through $100,000 in November this year, the probability of “returning to $100,000 before year-end” on Polymarket once reached over 70%.

● As prices corrected and time passed, this probability continued to fall to single digits. By December 11, investors on the Kalshi platform estimated the probability of bitcoin breaking through $100,000 before December 31 at about 34%, while the corresponding probability on Polymarket was 29%.

In just two weeks, market expectations for breaking through $100,000 plummeted from nearly one-third to 5%, reflecting a significant cooling of traders’ expectations for a sharp short-term rally.

3. Key Support

● Despite the more cautious market sentiment, most traders still believe the $80,000 level will be strongly defended. A 16% probability of breaking below means that over 80% of capital is betting that bitcoin can hold this key price point.

● Analysts point out that bitcoin currently faces resistance at $94,000 and may break through to the $98,000 liquidity area via an ascending triangle pattern. Breaking out and consolidating above $94,000 should push the price toward the triangle’s measured target of around $108,000.

● Factors supporting the current price center include continued institutional participation. Polymarket traders believe it is highly probable that MicroStrategy will make a routine purchase this week, with a 65% chance of buying more than 1,000 bitcoins.

4. Risk Factors

● There are multiple pressures behind the more cautious market sentiment. The time window is extremely narrow, with only one week left until year-end, and bitcoin needs to rise more than 11% to reach $100,000. Historical data shows that the probability of a big rally at year-end is not high.

● Macroeconomic uncertainty is also increasing. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut path is unclear, and expectations for the magnitude of rate cuts in 2026 have been revised down, weakening the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like bitcoin. Institutional investor behavior also impacts the market.

● The rate at which companies are buying bitcoin on a daily basis continues to decline, indicating that institutional investors may have entered a fatigue phase. Geopolitical and regulatory risks also remain, dampening the willingness of speculative capital to chase higher prices.

5. Short-term Outlook

● Analysts believe that in the short term, bitcoin is highly likely to maintain a volatile pattern, with $90,000 becoming a key center. An upward breakout will require a strong catalyst, such as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve or large institutional purchases; downside risks come from year-end selling pressure and amplified volatility due to thin liquidity.

● Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that bitcoin’s price may only rise to “retest the previous support area around $98,000.” He added, “This is also where a large amount of liquidity is concentrated.”

● Most institutions believe the probability of bitcoin returning to $100,000 is higher in the first half of 2026, and that it will be difficult to break through this level in the final week of the year.

6. Long-term Perspective

● Although the short-term outlook is uncertain, analysts remain constructive on bitcoin’s long-term trend. Jurrien Timmer, Head of Global Macro at Fidelity, pointed out that over the 145 weeks from 2022 to 2025, bitcoin has achieved a 105% annual compound growth rate, closely matching the long-term regression model.

● Timmer believes that although bitcoin may still experience a deeper correction in 2026, with prices possibly falling to the $65,000-$75,000 range, he emphasizes that these areas have historically proven to be strong buying opportunities.

● Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, believes that the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer the dominant factor in bitcoin’s price behavior. The extended debt refinancing cycle and evolving liquidity dynamics suggest that the current market structure may persist until 2026.

Bitcoin reaching the $300,000 price level in 2029.

As the market’s focus shifts from feverishly chasing the $100,000 all-time high to cautiously defending the key $80,000 line, the picture painted by traders voting with their capital on Polymarket is particularly clear. The current 16% probability of breaking below, rather than being absolute confidence in bitcoin’s strength, reflects the market’s aversion to extreme volatility during the thin liquidity period at year-end.

With little trading time left in 2025, bitcoin is like a coin suspended in the air at $90,000—having lost its upward momentum, but not yet finding a reason to fall. Analyst Jurrien Timmer pointed out that bitcoin has achieved a 105% annual compound growth rate, closely matching the long-term regression model.