IOSG founding partner: This is not the bull market peak but an institutional accumulation period, optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026

BlockBeats News, December 21, IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on social media, stating, "2025 will be the darkest year for the crypto market, but also the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, yet most people are still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycle. Reviewing the 2025 crypto market, we see a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation. Core data shows institutions holding 24%, while retail investors have exited by 66%, completing the turnover in the crypto market. Although BTC will decline by 5.4% in 2025, it will reach a historical high of $126,080 during this period. Market dominance has already shifted from retail investors to institutions. Institutions continue to accumulate at 'high levels' because they focus on the cycle, not the price. While retail investors are selling, institutions are buying. The current phase is not the 'bull market top,' but rather the 'institutional accumulation period.'

There will be midterm elections in November 2026. Historically, 'election years see policy moves first,' so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 will be a policy honeymoon period with institutional allocation, and the market outlook is positive; the second half of 2026 will bring political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, risks remain, including Federal Reserve policy, a strong US dollar, possible delays in the market structure bill, continued selling by LTH, and uncertainty over the midterm election results. But the flip side of risk is opportunity—when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position.

Short-term (3-6 months): Fluctuating in the $87,000-$95,000 range, institutions continue to accumulate

Mid-term (first half of 2026): Driven by both policy and institutions, target $120,000-$150,000

Long-term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, dependent on election results and policy continuity

This is not the cycle top, but the starting point of a new cycle. The year 2025 marks the acceleration of institutionalization in the crypto market. Despite BTC's negative annual return, ETF investors have shown strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 appears to be the worst for crypto, but in reality, it is: the largest-scale supply turnover, the strongest institutional allocation willingness, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvement. Although prices dropped by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billions, and the outlook for the first half of 2026 remains positive. Key highlights for 2026 include: legislative progress on the market structure bill, the possibility of expanding strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity after the midterm elections. In the long run, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity will lay the foundation for the next round of growth. When the market structure fundamentally changes, old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be rebuilt."