Krypton Capital: Fed’s Harker Sees Higher Neutral Rate Amid Inflation Distortions and Robust Growth Ahead

Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker cautioned that November’s inflation readings looked constructive, but he attributed part of the improvement to distortions tied to the October government shutdown and the early November period that may have understated the 12‑month price trajectory.

The Labor Department reported a CPI increase of 2.7% year over year in November, with revised estimates that account for measurement challenges placing the pace near the 2.9%-3.0% range that many forecasters had anticipated.

Harker also indicated that policy normalization should proceed with caution: rate cuts appear unlikely while the neutral rate is viewed as higher than commonly believed and the economy shows momentum into next year. The neutral rate cannot be observed directly but must be inferred from economic dynamics. (Krypton Capital)