XRP Monthly RSI: Bull vs Bear Scenarios

Egrag Crypto has published a detailed technical assessment of XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index, outlining why the current cycle is diverging from prior historical patterns.

The analysis centers on the RSI’s relationship with its moving average, a dynamic that previously acted as a reliable continuation signal during major bullish phases.

In earlier cycles, XRP’s RSI respected this moving average, rebounding from it before resuming higher momentum. According to Egrag Crypto, that behavior has now changed in a meaningful way.

The latest monthly structure shows the RSI breaking below its moving average without producing a bounce. This absence of a recovery is presented as a clear shift in momentum characteristics rather than a routine pullback.

While this development introduces additional risk, the analyst emphasizes that it does not automatically confirm the start of a bear market. Instead, it signals that momentum conditions now require further validation before any sustained upside can be assumed.

#XRP Monthly RSI – Bull vs Bear Scenarios:

This cycle is different. In the last two cycles, RSI bounced off its MA and continued higher. This time, RSI broke below the MA with no bounce, a real momentum shift.

🟢 Bullish case (~55–60%):
▫️This break does not automatically mean…

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) December 16, 2025

Bullish Interpretation Hinges on Structural Support

Under the bullish framework, Egrag Crypto assigns a slightly higher probability to the view that the RSI breakdown represents a deeper reset within an ongoing cycle. Central to this interpretation is the 44–50 RSI zone, which the analyst describes as a long-term structural support region. As long as the RSI remains above this range, the analyst’s bullish view remains intact, but delayed.

For this scenario to gain credibility, several conditions must align. The RSI would need to stabilize within the 44–50 zone, reclaim its moving average, and establish a higher low without printing new momentum lows.

A clean turn upward from that structure would suggest that the current weakness is a mid-cycle momentum washout rather than a terminal top. In that case, the broader cycle could extend further, though with a slower and more selective progression.

Bearish Risks Linked to Persistent Rejection

The bearish scenario, which Egrag Crypto places slightly below the bullish probability, focuses on the consequences of a failed recovery.

If the RSI remains below its moving average and continues to lose traction around the 50 level, momentum would likely shift into a distribution phase. Repeated rejections near 50 combined with lower RSI highs would reinforce the bearish scenario.

If that plays out, XRP would be expected to enter a prolonged corrective or consolidative period. Rallies would be viewed as countertrend moves rather than the start of a sustained uptrend. The analyst notes that, under this outcome, time becomes a defining factor, with extended sideways action exerting pressure on market participants.

Momentum Now Demands Confirmation

Egrag Crypto’s conclusion is deliberately measured. The current RSI structure does not confirm a definitive cycle top, but it removes the assumption of automatic continuation.

With the RSI having lost its historical support behavior, the next major move depends on confirmation rather than expectation. Until that confirmation appears, XRP remains in a technically sensitive phase where momentum, not price alone, will determine the prevailing trend.