10x Research: Market profits are driven by a small group of elites, while most participants act more like "emotion-driven bettors"
ChainCatcher News, 10x Research pointed out in the latest series of research (Part II) that although prediction markets often pride themselves on "the wisdom of the crowd," data shows that the accuracy and profitability of the market mainly come from a very small number of information-advantaged professional traders, rather than the general participants.
The report states that most users behave more like sports bettors, favoring narratives, emotion-driven decisions, and long-odds bets; in contrast, a small group of professionals systematically achieve stable returns by pricing probabilities, hedging risks, and exploiting order flow imbalances and expected convergence.
Part I of 10x Research previously analyzed structural inflection points in prediction markets, including accelerated liquidity, regulatory clarity, and the rapid entry of institutions and retail investors, and pointed out that early advantages in new markets are usually captured by "information-advantaged" participants. Part III will provide ten actionable trading frameworks and real trading cases for prediction markets.
The team believes that as prediction markets will further expand in 2026, now is a critical window to examine trading structures, stating that "it is crucial to understand the core mechanisms before liquidity deepens and simple arbitrage opportunities disappear."
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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