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Reevaluating Momentum (MMT) Amid Changing Market Conditions

Reevaluating Momentum (MMT) Amid Changing Market Conditions

Bitget-RWA2025/12/07 21:58
By:Bitget-RWA

- Risk-managed momentum trading (MMT) in crypto outperformed traditional methods, boosting weekly returns by 0.29% and Sharpe ratios by 0.30 (2023-2025 studies). - Institutional adoption, including Bitcoin ETFs and DeFi integrations, amplified liquidity and momentum opportunities, with Bitcoin surging 41.2% post-ETF launch. - Weekend trading in altcoins showed higher returns and lower drawdowns due to reduced institutional activity and increased retail participation in 24/7 markets. - Dynamic strategies li

Adapting Momentum Trading to Crypto Market Volatility

The unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market has historically challenged momentum-based trading approaches. However, recent trends indicate that innovative risk management and flexible strategies have made momentum trading more robust, enabling traders to better navigate crypto’s frequent price swings. As the landscape shifts—with increased institutional involvement, evolving regulations, and new financial products—market participants must rethink how they identify promising opportunities and control risk in this fast-paced sector.

Strengthening Momentum Strategies with Risk Controls

Traditional momentum strategies in the crypto space often faltered during periods of intense volatility, as sudden corrections could quickly erase gains. In contrast, risk-adjusted momentum approaches have delivered superior results in recent years. Research published in Finance Research Letters revealed that risk-managed momentum trading improved average weekly returns from 3.18% to 3.47%, and boosted annualized Sharpe ratios from 1.12 to 1.42 between 2023 and 2025. This outperformance is attributed to the distinctive characteristics of crypto markets, which, unlike equities, rarely experience prolonged momentum crashes. As a result, these strategies can focus more on maximizing profits rather than just limiting losses.

The entry of institutional investors has further strengthened momentum trends. For example, the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2025 triggered a 41.2% rally in Bitcoin’s price, pushing it to $90,446 by November 2024. Additionally, the integration of decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure by major companies such as PayPal and Spark has improved liquidity, creating favorable conditions for momentum-driven trading.

Timing Matters: The Weekend Effect in Crypto

Recent studies have highlighted a notable “weekend effect” in cryptocurrency momentum. Data shows that altcoins tend to deliver higher momentum returns on weekends compared to weekdays. Strategies focused on weekend trading not only outperform those centered on weekdays but also achieve better risk-adjusted returns and experience smaller drawdowns. This pattern is likely due to the 24/7 operation of crypto markets, where reduced institutional activity and increased retail trading over weekends intensify short-term price movements.

Crypto Market Weekend Effect

Traders who overlook these temporal dynamics may miss out on key opportunities for entry.

Pinpointing Entry Opportunities: Technical and Price Action Tools

To identify the best moments to enter trades in volatile markets, momentum traders combine technical indicators with price action analysis. Common tools include moving averages, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to assess trend strength. Breakouts from significant support or resistance levels, especially when accompanied by increased trading volume, often signal the continuation of a trend. Additionally, candlestick patterns—such as engulfing formations—can provide strong indications of shifts in market sentiment.

Dynamic allocation methods further enhance timing. For instance, the Trakx BTC Momentum Crypto Tradable Index (CTI) modifies Bitcoin exposure based on prevailing trends and uses stablecoins like USDC to hedge positions. This balanced approach allows traders to benefit from momentum while minimizing risk during sudden market reversals.

Advanced Risk Management: Beyond Basic Stop-Losses

While stop-loss orders remain a fundamental risk control, the high volatility of cryptocurrencies requires more sophisticated techniques. Managing position size—by limiting the amount of capital risked on each trade—helps cushion the impact of unexpected losses. Swing traders often use Fibonacci retracement levels and set predefined profit targets to manage trades over the medium term.

Adapting risk management frameworks from traditional markets has also proven effective. The Barroso and Santa-Clara (2015) model, originally designed for equities, has been successfully implemented in crypto trading, improving returns while reducing downside exposure. High-frequency strategies like scalping and day trading demand strict discipline to prevent rapid losses from compounding during sharp price swings.

Conclusion: Thriving in a Rapidly Changing Crypto Landscape

The transformation of cryptocurrencies from a speculative niche to a mainstream asset class has rewritten the playbook for momentum trading. Traders who embrace risk-managed strategies, leverage timing patterns such as the weekend effect, and utilize dynamic entry and exit tactics are better equipped to succeed. In a market defined by constant change and innovation, adaptability—not rigid adherence to old methods—is the key to long-term success.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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