Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnSquareMore
Bitcoin’s November Slump Aligns With Historical Cycles, Grayscale Research Shows

Bitcoin’s November Slump Aligns With Historical Cycles, Grayscale Research Shows

DeFi PlanetDeFi Planet2025/12/02 19:03
By:DeFi Planet

Quick Breakdown 

  • Grayscale reports Bitcoin’s November decline mirrors typical bull-market pullbacks, falling ~32% from peak to trough.
  • Historical data shows Bitcoin averages 30% drawdowns, with November marking the ninth dip of the current cycle.
  • Exchange inflows surged to 580,000 BTC since November 1, reflecting heightened trading activity amid price volatility.

 

Bitcoin’s sharp decline in November appears to be more routine than alarming, according to new analysis from Grayscale. The asset fell roughly 32% from peak to trough during the month, marking the ninth significant pullback of the current bull cycle. Grayscale says the scale and timing of the decline closely follow Bitcoin’s long-term behaviour and offer no indication that the broader trend has reversed.

Despite recent volatility, Grayscale Research does not believe Bitcoin is entering a deep, multi-year cyclical decline. We expect the potential for new highs next year, supported by improving macro conditions and a maturing market structure.

— Grayscale (@Grayscale) December 1, 2025

Bitcoin’s drawdown mirrors past bull-market corrections

Grayscale’s report highlights that Bitcoin has recorded around 50 drawdowns of at least 10% since 2010, with the average pullback hovering around 30%. November’s decline sits almost exactly at that threshold. The firm notes that Bitcoin’s bull markets typically progress through steep surges followed by abrupt corrections lasting between eight and twelve weeks.

This pattern, Grayscale says, has remained consistent even as market structure evolves. During the ongoing cycle, Bitcoin has already experienced eight meaningful dips before the November retracement, each eventually giving way to renewed upward momentum.

No signs of a prolonged down cycle

Some traders see the recent drop as the start of a deeper reversal, but Grayscale’s research paints a different picture. Analysts note that past multi-year downturns typically followed a parabolic price blow-off, something we haven’t seen this time around. They also point to the rising influence of institutional vehicles like ETFs and structured digital-asset products, which may be helping to temper extreme volatility and create a more measured market environment.

Grayscale concludes that, absent a blow-off top or a fundamental shift in investor behaviour, Bitcoin’s recent downturn fits squarely within its typical bull-market rhythm. The firm expects the market to stabilize as long-term holders continue to accumulate and macro conditions remain supportive.

Meanwhile, global Bitcoin inflows to centralized exchanges have climbed to 580,000 BTC since November 1, 2025, marking one of the sharpest liquidity shifts this cycle. The surge reflects heightened trading activity as Bitcoin struggles to regain a firm footing near $90,000.

 

0
0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

Don't be fooled by the rebound! Bitcoin could retest the lows at any time | Special Analysis

Analyst Conaldo reviewed bitcoin’s market performance last week using a quantitative trading model, successfully executing two short-term trades with a total return of 6.93%. The forecast for this week is that bitcoin will continue to fluctuate within a range, and corresponding trading strategies have been formulated. Summary generated by Mars AI. The accuracy and completeness of this summary, generated by the Mars AI model, are still being updated and iterated.

MarsBit2025/12/08 23:41
Don't be fooled by the rebound! Bitcoin could retest the lows at any time | Special Analysis

Espresso co-founder’s decade in crypto: I wanted to disrupt Wall Street’s flaws, but witnessed a transformation into a casino instead

Everything you've been hoping for may have already arrived; it just looks different from what you expected.

深潮2025/12/08 22:18
Espresso co-founder’s decade in crypto: I wanted to disrupt Wall Street’s flaws, but witnessed a transformation into a casino instead
© 2025 Bitget