Suspected Google insider leaks Gemini 3.0 Flash release window, multiple accounts make precise bets during narrow time frame

ChainCatcher news, according to PolyBeats monitoring, in the series of prediction markets "Will Gemini 3.0 Flash be released before _?", the trading patterns of multiple traders show a remarkable consistency: they have precisely locked the product release date within a narrow 16-day window.

This prediction series contains three key deadlines. Currently, the market generally believes that: the probability of the November 30 deadline, which is less than 3 days away, is only 1%; the probability of release before December 15 is 9%; while the probability of release before December 31 is as high as 91%. This trend reflects the market's strong confidence in the release of Gemini 3.0 Flash, but also the belief that Google needs more time for final testing and adjustments.

Among the traders in this market, several accounts show highly unified position structures, indicating precise knowledge of internal timing. For example, user gladitya, by simultaneously holding "No" shares for November 30 and December 15, and "Yes" shares for December 31, has bet a total of $14,000 with high certainty that the release date will be precisely locked between December 16 and December 31. This position has currently achieved more than 40% unrealized profit. Notably, the only previous historical trade of this account was a successful bet on the release of another Gemini version, earning nearly $10,000.

There are two other traders whose position structures closely match this: NCW, with no other trading history, has heavily bet $17,810 on "No" for December 15 and "Yes" for December 31. Ambuscade, in addition to holding over $50,000 in this market, has an average position of less than $50 in his previous five trades. This pattern, where multiple accounts use large amounts of capital to precisely exclude early dates and concentrate bets on a specific later window, is highly indicative of insider information.