- The Pivot: JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs forecast a December rate cut due to missing economic data.
- The Reaction: Bitcoin stabilized at $90K while XRP rallied on hopes of a pro-crypto Fed regime.
- The Future: A “Hassett-led” Fed in 2026 could end the era of regulation by enforcement.
Wall Street’s consensus has fractured forcing a repricing of risk assets that has Bitcoin and XRP targeting immediate breakouts.
Citing a new note from JP Morgan, Reuters reports that the Federal Reserve is now expected to deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut during its December 9-10 meeting.
If it turns out to be true, the move would mark a sharp reversal from the bank’s previous call that policymakers should postpone these decisions until January 2026.
The ‘data darkness’ catalyst
The shift is driven largely by the 43-day US government shutdown, which scrambled the release schedule for key economic indicators.
With the delayed September jobs report showing a modest 119,000 payroll gain, and October data nonexistent due to the closure, Fed officials like New York President John Williams are effectively flying blind into the next meeting.
Markets front-run the cut
Another finance powerhouse, Goldman Sachs, is echoing this sentiment, stating that the September data likely “sealed” the December cut.
Traders are reacting aggressively, with the CME FedWatch tool now pricing in a nearly 85% chance of a cut. Simultaneously, reports from Bloomberg claim Kevin Hassett could be the one to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.
Bitcoin and XRP react to the news
Bitcoin and XRP are absorbing this liquidity signal first. For the past couple of weeks, both Bitcoin and XRP were caught in a “risk-off” slide, suppressed by the uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown and hawkish regards from the Fed.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin seems to have stabilized at around $90k. The market appears to be showing signs of a pivot, moving from a correction phase into a consolidation pattern. Given its nature and key use case, XRP is particularly sensitive to the regulatory environment, which is why these leadership rumors now serve as a floor for its price action.
The prevailing trend for both assets seems to have shifted from “bearish” to “cautiously optimistic” overnight, as the removal of the shutdown uncertainty allows technical support levels to hold.
Looking ahead to the next 3-6 months, the combination of immediate liquidity and a potential regime change at the Fed could be a potent catalyst.
Bitcoin’s Path to Resistance
If the Fed delivers the 25-basis-point cut in December as JP Morgan predicts, we can expect an immediate short-term repricing of risk assets, likely pushing Bitcoin to test its recent resistance levels.
Related: Bitcoin Hits $91K Once More: But How Long Can Rally Hold Above Key Support Zone?
However, the bigger story for Q1 2026 is Kevin Hassett. Known for his pro-market stance and rumored crypto-friendly views (including reported investments in Coinbase), a Hassett chairmanship could signal the end of the “regulation by enforcement” era.
XRP’s Breakout Setup
For XRP, a Hassett-led Fed could provide the clarity needed for a sustained breakout. The first step is the December meeting, which could pave the way for a much more optimistic Q1 2026.
Related: Ripple’s RLUSD Secures ‘Accepted Token’ Status from Abu Dhabi Regulator
