Bitcoin Updates: Bitcoin ETF Outflows Trigger Bull and Bear Showdown Amid Ongoing Fed Uncertainty

November saw an unprecedented wave of withdrawals from Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with outflows surpassing $3.5 billion and sparking debate over the cryptocurrency’s short-term prospects. The most substantial weekly redemptions were recorded by BlackRock’s

(IBIT), which saw $1 billion leave the fund, while both Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC also experienced notable outflows . This marks the third-largest outflow event since these ETFs debuted in late 2023, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price tumbling 33% from its October high of $126,000 to a low of $81,000 in early November . Experts attribute the sell-off to changing macroeconomic conditions, such as diminishing expectations for a third Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025 and renewed turbulence in AI-driven markets.

This downturn has led to a broader retreat from crypto assets, with stablecoin supplies contracting for the first time in several months and algorithmic stablecoins like

losing nearly 50% of their value since October . Greg Cipolaro from NYDIG highlighted that these structural factors, rather than market sentiment, are driving Bitcoin’s decline, cautioning that volatility is likely to persist in the near term despite optimism for the long run. At the same time, corporate treasury approaches linked to digital asset token (DAT) premiums have shifted, with companies now offloading assets or buying back shares as discounts appear .

Opinions among investors are mixed. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas pointed to Bitcoin’s track record of bouncing back from even steeper corrections, while Blueprint Finance’s Nicholas Roberts-Huntley argued that the current sell-off could help eliminate excess leverage and pave the way for a more sustainable recovery. Still, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish approach adds uncertainty. Recent employment figures, which exceeded expectations, have lowered the chances of a rate cut in December, though Barclays Research suggested that Chair Jerome Powell may still advocate for a 25-basis-point reduction

. This ongoing ambiguity has kept trading between $85,000 and $90,000, with analysts like Michael van de Poppe noting that technical signals such as oversold RSI levels and reduced liquidations could trigger a short-term bounce.

At present, Bitcoin’s price is consolidating within a tight band, awaiting a decisive macroeconomic event to determine its next move. Technical analysis indicates that the recent oversold RSI readings could offer a brief buying window, but traders should remain vigilant given the prevailing volatility and uncertain monetary policy.

Investors are monitoring RSI and moving average crossovers for signs of a potential reversal in the ongoing bearish trend. Although Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains positive, the current volatility reflects a lack of agreement on where the market is headed in the short run.

Should regulatory clarity and custody infrastructure improve, institutional interest in Bitcoin-based financial products—such as yield-generating and collateral-backed instruments—could drive the next wave of adoption

. For now, however, the market is largely in a holding pattern. As Andreas Brekken from SideShift.ai noted, the present decline is consistent with previous bear market cycles, with a new bull phase potentially beginning in early 2026 .