Bitcoin Updates Today: Despite Bitcoin’s Drop, Positive Indicators Emerge—Could a Recovery Be Near?

Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest point in seven months, hovering around $82,000, but new technical and on-chain indicators are hinting at a possible change in direction. A concealed bullish divergence on the weekly chart—where the price continues to fall but momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) begin to stabilize or improve—has led some to believe that the selling pressure could be waning. This pattern, pointed out by analysts such as Ash Crypto, may signal a strong recovery

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The recent slump has been driven by a mix of institutional withdrawals and worsening on-chain data.

spot ETFs saw a as of November 21, making it the fourth week in a row of outflows and raising concerns about declining institutional interest. At the same time, on-chain indicators like the 7-day EMA for short-term holder (STH) realized losses , the highest since the FTX crash, highlighting significant investor anxiety. , with $1.82 billion in losses over the past week, mostly from long positions.

Even with this negative backdrop, some fundamental shifts point to a possible bottom forming. Glassnode researchers observed that Bitcoin’s fall below $97,000 and subsequent dip to $89,000 has pushed its price under the STH cost basis, a historically bearish development that often leads to panic selling

. Investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have been gradually increasing their holdings, while larger holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) continue to sell, suggesting a redistribution of coins . Meanwhile, retail investors have been net sellers over the last two months, adding further complexity to the demand outlook .

Technical signals are mixed. The weekly RSI is at 33, indicating bearish momentum, but the hidden divergence could point to a reversal

and absorb the selling. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has fallen below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $85,569 and is now trading near $87,000, with the RSI at 31, suggesting it is oversold . Important support levels include the psychological $80,000 mark and the $89,651 average ETF holder cost, which previously acted as a short-term floor .

Traders are also monitoring MicroStrategy’s cost basis at $74,433 and the 100-week EMA at $85,389, which could become key psychological and technical levels if the correction deepens. Should Bitcoin end the week below $85,389, the decline could continue toward $71,769, a price not seen since late 2022

. On the other hand, a move back above $85,000 could reignite buying and set up a challenge of the $90,000 resistance area .

The overall market remains unstable, with Bitcoin’s dominance at 56.6% and most altcoins following its downward trend

. Still, the appearance of a hidden bullish divergence and accumulation by mid-sized holders suggest the worst of the decline may be over—or at least that the market could be entering a period of stabilization. Experts warn that consistent buying from both institutions and retail traders will be essential to confirm a true reversal, but the current mix of negative fundamentals and emerging technical optimism leaves room for a potential multi-month recovery