ARK Invest sees institutions offset early Bitcoin whales’ sell-off

Bitcoin’s market structure is changing as its long-time owners sell and institutions buy aggressively. A new ARK Invest analysis reveals that much of the selling pressure from early adopters, commonly referred to as “whales” in business parlance, is now being offset by growing institutional demand through ETFs and public company treasuries.

This tug-of-war is shaping the current bull cycle and may persist into 2026. Bitcoin’s “liveliness” index has grown to 0.89, its highest ever reading since 2018. This metric tracks the movement of long-held coins by comparing total coin-days destroyed to the total ever created. A rising liveliness score indicates older coins are being moved or sold.

On a technical note, ARK observes that the rise suggests long-term holders have been taking profits at the fastest pace since 2021. A number of these coins have been in circulation for years, indicating that early adopters are holding onto their supply after a run of favorable price results. You can now see this trend in the decrease in “vaulted” supply – the name ARK uses for coins held long-term without movement. Around 7.97 million BTC were considered to be vaulted at the beginning of 2024.

By the beginning of 2025, this had fallen to around 7.55 million. On November 15, 2025, the vaulted supply fell further to approximately 7.32 million BTC. This decline is a sign that early holders are freeing up liquidity and benefiting from a high-demand market. Similar surges in robust liveliness during past cycles have accompanied periods when long-term holders distribute, typically during strong price rallies.

Institutional demand absorbs the flow

At launch, ETF holdings were zero BTC; however, they quickly grew to 1,125,507 BTC on January 1, 2025. This number reached approximately 1,332,379 BTC by November 15, 2025. Public company holdings have also soared. The number of companies with Bitcoin, such as those with digital asset treasury strategies, rose from 271,996 BTC at the beginning of 2024 to 598,995 BTC by January 2025.

Meanwhile, in mid-November 2025, holdings more than doubled again to roughly 1,056,367 BTC. ETFs and corporate treasuries had combined to control an estimated 2,388,746 BTC. This constitutes at least one of the biggest concentrations of institutional Bitcoin ownership in the asset’s history.

ARK analysis has suggested that from January 2024 to November 15, 2025, the ETFs and public companies received approximately 1,466,102 BTC after accounting for inflows and vaulted supply.

Year-to-date movements are similar, with a net balance of approximately 428,721 BTC flowing from long-held to institutional buyers. This is a structural transfer of ownership, with early adopters handing over supply to institutions entering Bitcoin as a formal asset class.

Institutions drive new market structure

ARK concludes that this change might shape the future of how Bitcoin behaves. Institutional demand responds to overall economic and monetary scenarios.

If US dollar liquidity improves—for instance, if the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening and begins cutting interest rates—institutions may seek to increase their holdings of US dollars.

Those conditions, ARK says, may increasingly become the case as inflation cools and policymakers seek to shore up growth. Institutions might ramp up their build-up toward late 2025 and into 2026.

In the case of Bitcoin, this will mean additional price support during corrections and greater liquidity in rallies. So as more corporate treasuries, ETFs, and asset managers enter the space, Bitcoin may be held more tightly — while whales take their profits too.