$300M Funding + CFTC Endorsement, Kalshi Takes on Prediction Market Giants

Original Article Title: "USD 300 Million Funding, CFTC Approval, Kalshi Aims for Prediction Market Dominance"

Original Article Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

In the wave where crypto meets finance, the prediction market is emerging as the next multi-billion-dollar track. On October 10th, the U.S. compliant prediction market platform Kalshi completed a round of funding exceeding USD 300 million, with a valuation soaring to USD 50 billion. This round was led by Sequoia Capital and a16z, with participation from existing shareholders like Paradigm. Kalshi also plans to allow customers from over 140 countries to place bets on its website.

Just four months ago, Kalshi was valued at USD 20 billion in a USD 185 million round in June. Today, doubling in value reflects investors' fervent confidence in the prediction market.

Stellar Team and VC Lineup

Kalshi was co-founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. Mansour, a graduate of MIT, is also a seasoned player in the quantitative trading field, having held executive positions at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where he is well-versed in derivative pricing and risk management. Lara comes from a Brazilian fintech background and previously led emerging market strategies at Morgan Stanley. The duo targeted "event contracts," a part of traditional finance that had been overlooked—essentially bets on future events.

Unlike Polymarket's blockchain-native path, Kalshi chose to build a compliant platform from scratch, obtaining early regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to become the first regulated prediction market in the U.S. This "arduous but responsible path," as described by a16z Growth Fund partner Alex Immerman, allowed Kalshi to stand out in the regulatory storm.

The team lineup is Kalshi's core competitive advantage. In addition to the founding duo, Kalshi has attracted numerous Wall Street elites and tech gurus. Chief Technology Officer (CTO) Eli Levine hails from Google Cloud, where he led large-scale data infrastructure projects to ensure the platform's low latency and high throughput. Product Lead Sarah Chen transitioned from Coinbase, where she spearheaded Kalshi's expansion into sports and political markets, seamlessly integrating complex parlay bets.

It is worth mentioning that Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of Trump, joined the Kalshi Advisory Board in January 2025, bringing not only political insights but also fueling the platform's surge in the prediction markets. In the 2024 US presidential election, Kalshi's presidential win rate prediction reached an accuracy of up to 85%, far surpassing traditional polls. With a team size exceeding 150 people covering quantitative models, compliance, and user growth, averaging over 10 years of industry experience. This "Wall Street + Silicon Valley" hybrid model has positioned Kalshi as a leader in product iteration: expanding from single-event contracts to multi-dimensional markets such as sports, weather, and economic data, with an average daily user activity of over 100,000.

Behind the financing, the VC lineup is considered luxurious, showcasing the strategic value of the prediction market. The lead investor of this round, Sequoia Capital, is a Silicon Valley legend with a portfolio including Airbnb and Stripe, early on betting on Kalshi's regulatory advantage; a16z, as a crypto-native fund, founder Marc Andreessen openly praised Kalshi for "reshaping event-driven finance." Paradigm, which led the $185 million round in June, has made additional investments in this round, injecting a total of over $200 million. Other co-investors include Coinbase Ventures and Bond Capital, led by former a16z partner Mary Meeker, focusing on data-driven platforms. Kalshi's total funding has reached approximately $591 million, spanning 3 rounds: a $15 million seed round in 2021 (led by SV Angel), a $50 million Series A round in 2023, and the current Series D round.

Kalshi's another competitor, Polymarket, was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, positioning itself as a blockchain-native prediction market leveraging the Polygon chain, allowing users to directly bet with USDC. On October 7, 2025, Polymarket announced a top $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

Comparison with Polymarket

Data performance is the hardcore support for Kalshi's financing. Kalshi's average slippage in liquidity pool depth is <0.1%, far below the industry average. Financially, the platform has achieved profitability, with revenue exceeding $200 million in the first half of 2025, mainly from a 0.5%-1% transaction fee. According to Dune Analytics data, Kalshi's weekly forecast market trading volume has rapidly risen above and surpassed Polymarket's competitors.

Kalshi Dominates Polymarket Across Multiple Dimensions. Firstly, Regulatory Compliance: Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM), allowing U.S. users to access the platform without the need for a VPN; Polymarket previously experienced a loss of U.S. traffic due to a ban in 2022 and relied solely on overseas users, recently re-entering the U.S. market through the acquisition of QCX LLC, although the specific launch date is still unknown.

Secondly, User Experience: Kalshi supports USD deposits, simplified KYC procedures, and is suitable for institutions; Polymarket relies on crypto wallets, faces higher gas fees and volatility. In terms of market coverage: Kalshi holds the majority share of the U.S. market, but has a lower share in other global regions, offering a more diverse range of sports and economic contracts; Polymarket focuses more on political and crypto events, with a lower U.S. penetration rate due to compliance factors.

Recent data from polymarketanalytics shows that although Kalshi's total trading volume is only $4 billion, significantly behind Polymarket, it leads Polymarket in total number of prediction markets and total open interest.

Zooming in on a narrower time frame reveals Kalshi's rapid growth trajectory. Data monitored by Artemis shows that in the past year, Kalshi's market trading volume has surged 135-fold to $9.563 billion, while Polymarket stands at just $4.646 billion.

Recent data from The Block indicates that Kalshi's daily active prediction market count has reached an all-time high of over 75,000.

Notably, Kalshi reached the top of the Apple App Store free charts on November 6, 2024, surpassing Polymarket. In October of this year, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, John Wang, mentioned in an interview with The Block at the Singapore Token2049 conference that Kalshi would be featured on "every major crypto app and exchange" within the next 12 months.

Polymarket's founder has hinted at launching the POLY token, and the market is now speculating whether Kalshi will also introduce a token following the increased attention. Despite some market rumors speculating on a potential move towards tokenization in the future, official channels and funding announcements have not mentioned the launch of a token.