Moody's: The probability of a US recession in the next 12 months is 48%, and the economy is at a critical point

according to Finbold, Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi stated that the institution's latest machine learning leading indicator shows that as of August, the probability of a recession in the United States in the next year is 48%. He said that although the reading is below the 50% threshold, based on historical experience, when the probability approaches or exceeds the mid-40% range, it often coincides with or follows a recession. Zandi also mentioned that the slowdown in employment and the continuous downward revisions of data have put the economy at a critical point.