Is $1.15 the Key Resistance Level for Ondo Finance ($ONDO) as RWA Adoption Accelerates?

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of technical battles, where price levels act as psychological and structural battlegrounds. For Ondo Finance ($ONDO), the $1.15 resistance level has emerged as a focal point, with both technical indicators and fundamental momentum suggesting it could be the catalyst for a parabolic move. As real-world asset (RWA) tokenization accelerates, the question is no longer whether ONDO can break through this level—but whether it must.

Technical Analysis: A Confluence of Patterns and Sentiment

ONDO’s price action around $1.15 has been a recurring story of near-misses and growing conviction. Over the past six months, the token has twice failed to breach this level—once in March and again in April 2025—highlighting its significance as a psychological barrier [1]. However, recent on-chain data reveals a shift: a 35% surge in new wallet addresses and a 12.25% increase in long-term holders signal growing adoption and confidence [1].

Technically, the price has formed a long-term descending triangle pattern, a bullish formation historically associated with sustained upward momentum [1]. A breakout above $1.15 would validate this pattern, with analysts projecting a short-term target of $1.75 and a longer-term target of $3.40 [1]. The RSI has also shown a bullish divergence, with the price making lower lows while the RSI prints higher lows since mid-August, suggesting waning bearish pressure [1].

Volume data, however, remains a critical wildcard. A clean breakout would require a surge in trading volume—ideally exceeding $500 million—to confirm institutional participation [4]. While the price has tested $1.15 multiple times, it has yet to close above it with sufficient volume. A failed breakout could see a retest of support levels near $1.03 or $0.95 [1], but the growing holder dynamics—14.94% of short-term traders and 12.25% of long-term holders—suggest a balanced transition toward sustained demand [1].

Fundamental Analysis: RWA Adoption as the Engine

The technical narrative is underpinned by a robust fundamental story. Ondo Finance has emerged as a leader in RWA tokenization, with its USDY stablecoin and tokenized U.S. Treasuries (OUSG) attracting over $1.3 billion in on-chain assets [3]. The platform’s 43% market share in the $24 billion tokenized asset sector underscores its dominance, driven by strategic partnerships with BlackRock , JPMorgan , and Franklin Templeton [3].

Institutional adoption has been a key driver. Ondo’s recent acquisition of an SEC-registered broker-dealer, Oasis Pro, and its expansion of USDY to 173 countries have solidified its regulatory and market access advantages [4]. The launch of Ondo Global Markets in late 2025, which will tokenize U.S. equities, ETFs, and bonds, opens access to $10 trillion in liquidity [3]. These developments align with the broader RWA market, which has grown to $26 billion in mid-2025 [1].

Whale activity further reinforces the bullish case. Over 3% of the circulating supply is now held in cold storage, signaling long-term conviction [2]. Additionally, 21Shares’ filing for an ONDO ETF in July 2025 introduces potential institutional demand, though regulatory outcomes remain uncertain [4].

The Breakout Equation: Fundamentals + Technicals

The interplay between RWA adoption and technical levels is critical. A $1.15 breakout would require both sustained TVL growth and expanded institutional adoption. For instance, if Ondo’s TVL reaches $2 billion by Q4 2025, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) could imply a price target of $1.05 or higher [2]. Whale accumulation and the launch of Ondo Chain—a proprietary blockchain for institutional-grade RWA settlements—add further technical and strategic momentum [3].

However, risks persist. The 2026 token unlock of 2.57 billion tokens could create downward pressure, though past unlocks have been absorbed without major dips [2]. Broader market volatility, particularly around the $1.00 psychological level, also remains a concern [2].

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Threshold

The $1.15 level is more than a technical barrier—it is a litmus test for Ondo Finance’s ability to capitalize on the RWA revolution. With fundamentals pointing to sustained growth and technicals hinting at a breakout, the stage is set for a pivotal moment. If ONDO can clear this level with conviction, it may not just validate the $1.15 resistance but also unlock a new chapter in the tokenization of real-world assets.

Source:
[1] ONDO Price Nears $1.15 Resistance, 70% Upside Potential if Breakout Confirmed
[2] Can ONDO's Fundamentals Justify a Price Breakout Above
[3] Latest Ondo (ONDO) News Update
[4] Ondo Finance Surges 480% on Strategic RWA Partnerships and Institutional Adoption