PANews reported on May 1, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin is poised to benefit as a "baseline scenario expectation" of a U.S. economic recession. Multiple sources hold a pessimistic view of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve. The trading information platform The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the U.S. GDP growth rate unexpectedly turned negative in the first quarter, coupled with trade tariff policies that may exacerbate inflation, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. It must choose between curbing inflation and the unemployment rate, with the extent and timing of rate cuts being crucial. Not cutting rates could weaken GDP and increase unemployment, while immediate rate cuts could risk an inflation rebound, leaving the Federal Reserve facing the dual threats of stagflation and a full-blown recession. Kobeissi stated that a U.S. economic recession has become the baseline expectation. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that market expectations for Federal Reserve policy are conservative, with little change expected before 2025. The market believes there is a 0.25% rate cut possibility at the FOMC meeting in June, with only a 3% chance in May. Crypto market participants are weighing the direction of Federal Reserve policy, with renowned trader Skew noting the rising probability of rate cuts, the urgency of the situation, and the Federal Reserve's increased focus on economic weakness. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that increasing rumors of a recession will strengthen the argument for the Federal Reserve to ease policy, which would increase market liquidity and potentially boost risk appetite.