The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May before the release of ADP data is 83.5%
According to CME "Fed Watch": Before the ADP data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May was 83.5%, and the probability of a rate cut by 25 basis points was 16.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 25.1%, with a cumulative chance of a rate cut by 25 basis points at 63.4% and a cumulative chance of a rate cut by 50 basis points at 11.6%.
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