Bitcoin Kurs

BITCOIN NUPL JUST FLASHED A MAJOR TREND REVERSAL After staying below its 365D SMA for 317 days, Bitcoin NUPL has finally crossed back above it. ➡️ NUPL: 0.32 ➡️ SMA365: 0.31 This is the first bullish crossover since Oct. 10, 2025. Historically, this matters because NUPL tracks the market’s unrealized profit/loss regime. If $BTC sustains above this zone, the recovery could have significantly more room to run. The trend may be changing.

门限托管正在从链上资产走向在线支付基础设施 上周的教训是，密钥安全不能只看一次生成或一次更新；今天的信号换了一层：门限签名正在被放进更复杂、持续在线的支付协议里，而协议本身的安全边界也必须一起重做。 据 IACR ePrint 报道，一篇新论文从 Lightning 的现实约束出发：频道端点依赖单个在线密钥，而门限化不能直接套用链上 Bitcoin 的方案。论文提出嵌套门限多重签名，并以 Iceberg 为例，让 Lightning 一侧以门限组运行，对手方仍看到标准 MuSig2 参与者。 据 IACR ePrint 另一篇论文，签名者可能被自适应攻破时，多轮并发会话与后续腐化让两轮方案尤其棘手。Pilaf 给出一种两轮门限签名构造，论文称其支持离线生成第一轮消息，并由达到门限的签名者聚合出可公开验证的签名。 第三篇 IACR 工作研究 MPC 的故障退路。把三条信号放在一起，主线不是“门限签名已经解决钱包安全”，而是安全边界正在从单一密钥转向协议级治理：谁能参与、何时能签、签名前后消息是否一致、失败时系统是否宁可停止。 对 agentic wallet 或 x402 这类持续触发支付动作的系统，最先该问的不是交易量，而是权限、限额、人工确认与停止条件能否被明确写出。 信源：IACR ePrint，论文 2026/1757、2026/1762、2026/1768。 #AI #Web3 #MPC #Lightning #ThresholdSignatures

#bitcoin #btc #crypto Good morning everyone. Bitcoin price prediction for today: $78915. $BTC

Bitcoin is trading around $76,958, extending its recovery from the recent $67,000–$70,000 demand region. Price has reclaimed the $75,045 Fibonacci level and is now pushing toward a major resistance cluster around $77,100–$77,450. The latest move shows improving bullish momentum, but BTC is approaching an important overhead resistance and liquidity zone. A confirmed breakout above this area could open the path toward $79,400 → $82,919. 📈 EMA Structure - 20 EMA: $67,464 - 50 EMA: $65,826 - 100 EMA: $66,945 - 200 EMA: $71,634 BTC is trading above all four major EMAs, with the 200 EMA at $71,634 now acting as an important structural support. Holding above the 200 EMA keeps the recovery structure bullish. A sustained move below this level would weaken the current momentum. 📐 Fibonacci & Market Structure Key Fibonacci levels: - 0.236: $75,046 - 0.382: $82,919 - 0.5: $89,282 - 0.618: $95,646 - 0.786: $104,705 - 1.0: $116,245 BTC has successfully reclaimed the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $75,046, which is an important structural improvement. The next major obstacle is the $77,100–$77,450 resistance zone. A clean breakout and retest could confirm further bullish continuation. 🟢 Bullish Scenario A confirmed breakout above $77,450 could trigger further upside toward: - $79,423 - $80,462 - $81,640 - $82,919 — 0.382 Fibonacci - $89,282 — 0.5 Fibonacci - $95,646 — 0.618 Fibonacci The $77,100–$77,450 area is the immediate breakout zone. If BTC establishes support above this region, momentum could accelerate toward $79,400–$82,900. A successful reclaim of $82,919 would significantly strengthen the higher-timeframe bullish structure and could shift focus toward $89,282 → $95,646. 🔴 Bearish Scenario Important supports are concentrated around: - $76,940 - $75,046 — 0.236 Fibonacci - $72,396 - $71,634 — 200 EMA - $71,543 - $69,699 - $67,464 — 20 EMA - $66,945 — 100 EMA - $65,826 — 50 EMA If BTC is rejected from $77,100–$77,450, a short-term pullback toward $75,046 would be possible. Losing $75,046 would weaken the immediate breakout structure and could bring $72,396–$71,543 into focus. A decisive breakdown below $69,699 would significantly weaken the recovery and increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward the $67,000–$65,800 demand region. 🧠 ICT / Market Structure BTC has formed a clear recovery structure from the June–July lows, with higher lows and successive resistance reclaims. The recent move above $75,046 represents an important market-structure improvement. However, liquidity and overhead supply remain concentrated around $77,100–$77,450. Traders should watch for either: Breakout → Retest → Continuation or Liquidity Sweep → Rejection → Pullback A successful breakout and retest of the resistance zone would provide stronger confirmation for bullish continuation. 📊 RSI Momentum RSI (14): 79.71 RSI is firmly above 70 and currently in the overbought region, confirming strong bullish momentum but also increasing the risk of short-term profit-taking or consolidation. As long as RSI remains elevated while price holds key support, momentum can remain bullish. A sharp RSI rejection combined with a loss of support would increase the probability of a pullback. 🎯 Key Levels 🔴 Resistance - $77,100 - $77,299 - $77,398 - $77,448 - $79,423 - $80,462 - $81,640 - $82,919 — 0.382 Fib - $89,282 — 0.5 Fib - $95,646 — 0.618 Fib 🟢 Support - $76,940 - $75,046 — 0.236 Fib - $72,396 - $71,634 — 200 EMA - $71,543 - $69,699 - $67,464 — 20 EMA - $66,945 — 100 EMA - $65,826 — 50 EMA 📌 Final Outlook BTC has shifted into a bullish short-term structure, trading above the major EMA cluster and reclaiming the $75,046 Fibonacci level. The immediate battle is now around $77,100–$77,450. A confirmed breakout and retest above this zone could open the path toward $79,423 → $82,919 → $89,282. However, with RSI at 79.71, BTC is significantly overbought in the short term, so consolidation or a liquidity sweep should not be ruled out. As long as BTC holds above $71,634, the broader recovery structure remains constructive. Bias: Bullish above $75,046, with $77,100–$77,450 as the key breakout zone and $72,396–$71,543 as the major support area. $BTC