glassnode: Options market reinforces bitcoin's range-bound pattern, with the fluctuation range between $81,000 and $95,000

BlockBeats News, December 18, glassnode released its weekly market analysis stating that the market continues to fluctuate within a fragile and time-sensitive structure, affected by heavy supply, rising realized losses, and persistently weakening demand. The price was blocked near $93,000 before falling back to $85,600, reflecting the dense supply accumulated in the $93,000 to $120,000 range, with previous strong buyers continuously suppressing price rebounds. As long as the price remains below the 0.75 quantile (around $95,000) and fails to reclaim the short-term holder cost basis of $101,500, the upside potential may remain limited.

Despite the pressure, patient demand has so far kept the true market mean near $81,300, preventing further price declines. Spot demand remains selective, corporate capital flows are intermittent, and futures positions continue to reduce risk rather than rebuild confidence. The options market reinforces this range-bound pattern, with near-term contract volatility narrowing, downside risks still present but relatively stable, and expiry-driven positioning keeping price movements constrained into late December.

In summary, bitcoin currently remains between structural support near $81,000 and ongoing selling pressure above. For a substantial shift to occur, either sellers must exhaust all selling above $95,000, or new liquidity must flow in to absorb supply and reclaim key cost basis levels.