Federal Reserve Rate Cut Debate: Can U.S. Treasuries Achieve New Highs? All Eyes on This Week’s Nonfarm Payrolls

Jinse Finance reported that the debate in the U.S. Treasury market over the extent of future Federal Reserve rate cuts is heating up as a series of key economic data is released. Bond traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice next year, one more than the Fed has hinted at. If market expectations are correct, this will lay the foundation for another strong performance by U.S. Treasuries, which are currently on track for their best year since 2020. George Catrambone, Head of Fixed Income at DWS Americas, said: "The direction of interest rates will depend on the labor market, so I am only focusing on Tuesday's non-farm payroll data." However, Kevin Flanagan of WisdomTree stated: "This week's employment report may carry less weight because the government shutdown has complicated data collection, which has shifted my focus to next month's report, which will be released before the Federal Reserve's January 28 policy decision." On the traders' side, based on swap market proxy indicators, they believe the Federal Reserve will end this round of easing with rates around 3.2%. If the Federal Reserve remains largely on hold in the face of stubborn inflation, this would suggest that Treasuries will continue to trade within a range in the future. (Golden Ten Data)