10x Research: Bitcoin's four-year cycle still exists, but its driving force has shifted from halving to politics and liquidity

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, stated that the four-year cycle of bitcoin still exists, but its main driving factors are no longer halving events, but rather political factors, liquidity environment, and election cycles.

The bitcoin market reached all-time highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This year, under the recent rate-cutting environment of the Federal Reserve, bitcoin has not regained strong upward momentum. The reason is that institutional investors have become the dominant force in the crypto market, but their decision-making is more cautious. With the Federal Reserve's policy signals still fluctuating and overall liquidity tightening, the pace of capital inflows has clearly slowed, weakening the momentum needed for sustained price breakthroughs. Until liquidity significantly improves, bitcoin is more likely to maintain range-bound oscillation and sideways consolidation, rather than quickly entering a new round of parabolic rally.