Market forecasts indicate a significant increase in the probability of Kevin Warsh being elected as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, currently at 3
U.S. President Trump has narrowed the Fed chair race down to "two Kevins." He has previously indicated a preference for choosing former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed next year. According to the latest data from the prediction market Kalshi, the probability of Kevin Warsh being elected as the next Fed chair has risen sharply by 25 basis points, now at 39%, while Kevin Hassett's probability has dropped by 18 basis points to 54%. Another candidate, Christopher Waller, has a probability of only 5%.
After a recent meeting, Trump stated that Warsh is currently his first choice but gave high praise to both candidates. They both support lowering interest rates and believe rates should be at 1% or below. The market has now factored in a more dovish policy outlook from the Fed.
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